Table 3 Parameter estimates from Bayesian Zero-Inflated Poisson regression models of dengue cases in Lao PDR, year 2015–2020.
From: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of dengue transmission in Lao PDR
Variables | Model I | Model II | Model III | Model IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RR (95% CrI) | RR (95% CrI) | RR (95% CrI) | RR (95% CrI) | |
Alpha* | − 1.19 (− 1.35 to − 1.04) | − 1.30 (− 1.35 to − 1.25) | − 1.31 (− 1.48 to − 1.15) | − 1.57 (− 1.80 to − 1.33) |
Mean monthly trend | 1.35 (1.34–1.36) | 1.35 (1.32–1.38) | 1.35 (1.33–1.37) | 1.59 (1.52–1.67) |
ALT (masl) | 1.00 (0.20–4.83) | 1.00 (0.21–4.88) | 1.00 (0.21–4.87) | 1.00 (0.21–4.83) |
NDVI with 1-month lag (unit) | 0.11 (0.10–0.12) | 0.11 (0.09–0.14) | 0.11 (0.09–0.13) | 0.09 (0.08–0.11) |
PREC with 6-month lag (mm) | 0.994 (0.994–0.995) | 0.994 (0.994–0.995) | 0.994 (0.994–0.995) | 0.994 (0.994–0.995) |
TEMP with 3-month lag (°C) | 1.42 (1.42–1.43) | 1.42 (1.40–1.45) | 1.42 (1.40–1.44) | 1.43 (1.41–1.45) |
Probability of extra zero | 1.55 (1.54–1.57) | 1.55 (1.53–1.57) | 1.55 (1.53–1.57) | 1.49 (1.47–1.51) |
Heterogeneity* | ||||
Unstructured | 0.40 (0.32–0.50) | – | 1.87 (1.07–3.07) | 1.46 (0.77–2.47) |
Structured | – | 0.20 (0.16–0.24) | 0.38 (0.24–0.59) | 0.31 (0.20–0.47) |
Structured (trend) | 0.51 (0.39–0.63) | |||
DIC | 115,498 | 115,636 | 115,584 | 110,201 |
