Fig. 1

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the research. (a) Performance of the MSKCC model applied to the verification group (n = 613). The area under the ROC curve was 0.817, and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.784–0.851, p < 0.001. (b) Performance of the new prediction model based on the development set (n = 531). The area under the ROC curve was 0.895, and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.867–0.923, p < 0.001. (c) Performance of the novel scoring system based on the risk score (n = 709). The area under the ROC curve was 0.887, and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.862–0.912, p < 0.001. (d) Performance of the validation set (n = 178). The area under the ROC curve was 0.865, and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.810–0.920, p < 0.001.