Table 2 Accuracy of predicting male performance at the international, national, and regional levels using KsA values and other approaches.

Dataset		C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6
Area/contries		World	Europe	GBR	GER	BLV¹	SHLV²
Performance level		international		national		regional
Number of runners		9	6	24	77	21	31
100m: mean time (s) 400m: mean time (s)		9.89	10.15	10.37	10.52	10.69	10.89
100m: mean time (s) 400m: mean time (s)		44.36	45.40	45.54	46.38	48.27	48.37	Mean ± SD³
100m → 400m	KsA	− 1.47	− 1.20	0.63	0.24	− 2.13	− 0.50	1.03 ± 0.71
Prediction error (%)	VDOT	not applicable for short distances
	Riegel	not applicable for short distances
	LOG	not applicable, times for two distances are necessary
Number of runners		42	59	60	100	27	60
1500 m: mean time (sec)		211.17	213.74	218.28	220.32	227.80	233.52
3000 m: mean time (sec)		450.38	459.96	466.10	473.02	495.26	505.32
5000 m: mean time (sec)		775.54	791.10	805.37	815.78	858.04	881.32	Mean ± SD
1500m → 3000m prediction error (%)	KsA⁴	1.56	0.66	1.44	0.89	− 0.37	0.10	0.84 ± 0.58
	VDOT⁵	1.47	0.88	1.27	0.84	− 0.66	− 0.06	0.86 ± 0.49
	Riegel⁶	− 2.53	− 3.04	− 2.60	− 3.18	− 4.09	− 4.02	3.24 ± 0.68
	LOG⁷	− 0.73	− 1.16	− 0.57	− 0.90	− 1.12	− 0.54	0.84 ± 0.27
3000m → 5000m prediction error (%)	KsA	0.09	0.21	− 0.25	− 0.06	− 0.52	− 1.18	0.39 ± 0.42
	VDOT	− 0.38	− 0.34	1.01	− 0.82	1.00	1.22	0.80 ± 0.36
	Riegel	− 1.62	− 0.94	− 0.46	− 0.67	− 0.52	− 0.33	0.76 ± 0.47
	LOG	− 0.66	− 0.08	− 0.73	− 0.60	− 0.91	1.09	0.68 ± 0.34

¹BLV, Badischer Leichtathletik Verband and ²SHLV, Schleswig-Holsteinischer Leichtathletik Verband: Regional track and field federations of Germany; ³The calculation was performed using the absolute values of the error, regardless of whether the prediction was overestimated or underestimated; ⁴The median KsA values, derived from the annual best times of German male runners between 1980 and 2022, of the respective neighboring (Table 1) or non-neighboring distances were used for the calculations; ⁵V dot 02 method; ⁶Riegel´s formula; ⁷logarithmic power law method. Calculations of the prediction error for the different methods are given in the Materials and Methods section. Underlying dataset/original data: C1–C6 (Tab. S02).

Search