Fig. 1

Global Climate Suitability Scenarios for Anopheles stephensi. (A) Baseline climate conditions (1970–2000). Black rings indicate the empirical presences of An. stephensi. Projected climate change scenarios for (B) 2021–2040, (C) 2041–2060, (D) 2061–2080, and (E) 2081–2100. All scenarios are based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5 (CMIP6), and were projected using Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from MIROC, MRI, and IPSL (CMIP6, SSP5-8.5). Yellow areas represent suitability predicted by Ensemble Forecasting Models (EFMs) using the Global Climate Model (GCM) from a single institution (regardless of the institution), referred to as the Single Agreement Forecast (SAF). Orange areas indicate suitability based on EFMs using GCMs from two institutions (regardless of the institution), defined as the Double Agreement Forecast (DAF). Red areas denote shared zones across EFMs generated with GCMs from all three institutions, indicating total agreement in climatic suitability for An. stephensi, named as Consensus Suitability Forecast (CSF). The gray areas, referred to as the Consensus Unsuitability Forecast (CUF), represents climatically unsuitable areas across EFMs generated with GCMs from all three institutions. The General Suitability Forecast (GSF) is the combination of forecasts from all GCMs (CSF + SAF + DAF), regardless of the institution or the degree of overlap among forecasts. This figure was generated using the R programming platform (v. 4.3.1) and ArcGIS Pro software (v. 3.3).