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Assessment of climatic parameter variation and its impact on sustainable agriculture in Dir Upper Pakistan with mitigation and adaptation strategies
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  • Published: 21 February 2026

Assessment of climatic parameter variation and its impact on sustainable agriculture in Dir Upper Pakistan with mitigation and adaptation strategies

  • Riaz Khan1,
  • Asim Suleman Abdullah Alwabel2,
  • Aman Ahmad3,
  • Medhat M. Helal4,
  • Muhammad Rafiq5,
  • Waseem Ur Rahman6,
  • Ayaz Mehmood7,
  • Muhammad Naveed Khalil8,
  • Rasheed Ahmad9 &
  • …
  • Ali Raza Gurmani9 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Climate sciences
  • Environmental sciences
  • Natural hazards
  • Plant sciences

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in vulnerable mountainous regions such as Upper Dir, Pakistan. This study, titled "Analysis of Variation in Climatic Parameters and Their Impact on Sustainable Agriculture in Dir, Pakistan: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies," aims to assess past climatic trends (2002–2023) and project future scenarios using the high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) model. The core objective is to evaluate the quantitative variation in key agro-climatic factors—temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed, and aridity and their cumulative impact on crop productivity, soil moisture, and water availability. Meteorological data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend analysis, return period analysis, and regression forecasting to determine both historical patterns and future trajectories. The results show a 2 °C rise in annual mean temperature from 1980 to 2023, accompanied by a 2% decline in rainfall and a 6% reduction in soil moisture, contributing to increasing aridity and hydrological stress. Wind speed exhibited minor seasonal fluctuations, while humidity increased, particularly during monsoon periods. Future climate projections under the high-emission RCP 8.5 scenario indicate an alarming and continuous rise in temperature throughout the twenty-first century. During the period from 2011 to 2040, the region is expected to experience moderate warming, with temperatures increasing by approximately 1.5 °C to 3.5 °C, and a median rise of around 2.5 °C. In the subsequent period of 2041 to 2070, this warming trend is projected to accelerate significantly, with temperature increases ranging from 4 to 7 °C, and a median rise of 5.5 °C. By the end of the century, from 2071 to 2100, the region could face extreme warming, with temperatures rising between 5 and 12 °C, and a projected median increase of 8.5 °C. These drastic increases are expected to intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture, disrupt crop cycles, and severely impact agricultural productivity and water availability in Upper Dir, Pakistan. To mitigate these effects, Author introduced climate-resilient species such as Tamarillo (tomato), Olive, Avocado, and Dragon Fruit, and distributed over 30,000 Tamarillo plants and other fruits plants across the region. Additionally, adaptive strategies including tunnel farming, agroforestry, construction of small dams, and efficient irrigation systems were promoted to enhance resilience. The findings emphasize the urgent need for policy-driven climate-smart agriculture, afforestation, and integrated water management strategies to sustain agricultural productivity and rural economies in the face of escalating climate risks.

Data availability

Data available upon request to the correspondence author.

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Acknowledgements

Funding Declaration This research work was funded by Umm Al-Qura University, Saudi Arabia, under grant number: 25UQU4300304GSSR06.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agriculture Soil Science Department of Soil & Climate Sciences, University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Riaz Khan

  2. Department of Business Informatics, Collage of Business, King Khalid University, 62223, Al Faraa, Abha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Asim Suleman Abdullah Alwabel

  3. Environmental Economics and Sustainable Development Adam Smith Business School, Social Development Expert-STC, The World Bank Group, The University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland

    Aman Ahmad

  4. Civil Enginnnering Department College of Engineering and Architecture, Umm Al-Qura University, Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Medhat M. Helal

  5. College of Business Administration, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Dhahran, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Muhammad Rafiq

  6. Department of Agriculture Extension Education and Communication, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Waseem Ur Rahman

  7. University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Ayaz Mehmood

  8. Department Center of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Muhammad Naveed Khalil

  9. Department of Soil & Climate Sciences, The University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Rasheed Ahmad & Ali Raza Gurmani

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Contributions

R.K. wrote the main manuscript text, performed data analysis, conducted data collection, and self-financed all research work. A.S.A.A. reviewed the manuscript, contributed to paper structure, and assisted with data analysis. A.A. prepared graphs and tables and contributed to manuscript review. M.M.H. reviewed the manuscript and improved the scientific methodology. M.R. reviewed the manuscript and corrected grammar mistakes. W.U.R. assisted in manuscript review and refinement during the write-up stage. A.M. reviewed the manuscript and provided guidance on data collection. M.N.K. contributed to data collection and manuscript review. R.A. acted as co-supervisor, contributing to research design and supervision. A.R.G. served as the primary supervisor, providing overall supervision, thesis guidance, and critical revisions. All authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Raza Gurmani.

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Khan, R., Alwabel, A.S.A., Ahmad, A. et al. Assessment of climatic parameter variation and its impact on sustainable agriculture in Dir Upper Pakistan with mitigation and adaptation strategies. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-24940-6

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  • Received: 09 February 2025

  • Accepted: 16 October 2025

  • Published: 21 February 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-24940-6

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Keywords

  • Quantitative variation
  • Agro-climatic factors
  • Temperature
  • Rainfall
  • Humidity
  • Wind speed
  • Sustainable agriculture
  • Mitigation
  • Climate change
  • RCP 8.5
  • Upper Dir Pakistan
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