Fig. 4 | Scientific Reports

Fig. 4

From: The Big Bang of an epidemic: a metapopulation approach to identify the spatiotemporal origin of contagious diseases and their universal spreading pattern

Fig. 4

Effective distance vs overtaking time (simulation result): The effective distances are illustrated versus \(pt^j_O\) (Eq. 88) for the empirical mobility data of Iran (Panel A) and the US (Panel B). Each panel represents two scenarios: we put the initial seed of the disease on a different node in each scenario. These two nodes are selected from the nodes with the higher chance of being the original COVID-19 source in Iran and the US based on the Where algorithm results. In this analysis, we used the same setup as in Fig. 2. In panel A, Gray/Green nodes represent the results of the simulation for Tehran/Qom, respectively as the source nodes. Also, the gray and Green lines are the best-fitted lines to the data, with their slope and regression shown in the legend. In Panel B, Red/Blue nodes represent the simulation results for Washington/Michigan as source nodes, with the Red and Blue lines showing the best-fitted lines to the data. Please refer to the S. M. Section 4 for more details regarding the mobility data.

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