Fig. 3

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) transmission dynamics at the waterfowl-backyard poultry farm interface. S = Susceptible, I = Infectious, R = Resistant, E = Environment. Subscripts were included to refer to specific components of the model, namely w for mute swans, r for resident mallards, m for migratory mallards, mal for all mallards (both resident and migratory), and p for backyard poultry farms. Parameters Arw and ew are included in the diagram to indicate the arrival and departure of migratory mute swans, respectively. Similarly, Arm and em represent the arrival and departure of migratory mallards. All mallards and mute swans migrate out after their time in the area.