Abstract
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a disease of bovines resulting from the mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) by arthropod vectors. While LSD has never been reported in Australia, the disease has spread through Asia and recently expanded to neighbouring countries such as Indonesia. The detection of LSD in Australian cattle would likely lead to trade restrictions, resulting in Australian cattle industries experiencing severe economic losses. There is a need for geospatial decision support tools to support border and post border surveillance efforts through the identification of areas which would be more vulnerable to a LSDV introduction. Previous risk assessments have calculated that overall risk of introduction into Australia is negligible to very low after evaluating four entry pathways, including windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors, commercial vessels carrying hitchhiker arthropod vectors (excluding live export vessels), returning live export vessels carrying hitchhiker arthropod vectors, and movements in Torres Strait Treaty area leading to the transport of hitchhiker arthropod vectors. However, the studies also reported very high uncertainty given a lack of robust empirical data for many of the model parameters and only described risk in terms of each pathway as a whole rather than describing spatial variation in risk. This study aimed to develop a novel integrated geospatial model for simulating the likelihood of LSDV-carrying vectors entering Australia via two different entry pathways: transport of vectors through shipping channels and vectors being carried long distances by strong wind currents. This model was used to explore the spatial variation in suitability for LSDV-carrying vectors entering Australia for each pathway independently and combined to identify geographical areas with the highest suitability. Furthermore, the study incorporated species distribution modelling and current bovine LSD case data in neighbouring countries to better model the current suitability of LSD in livestock, which were not included in the previous risk assessments. Pathway one showed the ports at Port Hedland and Dampier as having the highest suitability for LSDV-carrying vectors entering Australia compared to the rest of the country. Pathway two showed highest comparative suitability in Far North Queensland, with suitability extending as far as 25 degrees south. Furthermore, likelihood of vectors being carried by wind currents into Australia was highest in the summer months. A model combining both pathways highlighted areas along the northern tip of Far North Queensland and around Port Hedland in Western Australia as having the highest suitability for LSDV-carrying vectors entering Australia compared to the rest of the country. These findings may assist future modelling of exposure and spread of LSDV in the Australian bovine population following a successful incursion event, which may help guide local authorities with planning and prioritisation of integrated surveillance activities.
Data availability
The data presented in this study are based on publicly available datasets. All sources are specified in the Methods and Supplementary methods sections.
Code availability
The code used for the modelling conducted in this study are contained in the Supplementary methods section.
References
Animal Health Australia. Response strategy: Lumpy skin disease (version 5.2). Australian Veterinary Emergency Plan (AUSVETPLAN), edition 5. Canberra, ACT, (2024).
Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry. Lumpy skin disease, (2025). https://www.agriculture.gov.au/biosecurity-trade/pests-diseases-weeds/animal/lumpy-skin-disease
Lu, G. et al. Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in China, since 3 August 2019. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 68, 216–219. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13898 (2021).
Ratyotha, K., Prakobwong, S. & Piratae, S. Lumpy skin disease: A newly emerging disease in Southeast Asia. Vet. World. 15, 2764–2771. https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2022.2764-2771 (2022).
Nason, J. How likely is LSD in Australia, a year on from Indonesian detection? (2023). https://www.beefcentral.com/news/how-likely-is-lsd-in-australia-a-year-after-indonesian-outbreak/
Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry. Australia delivers half a million lumpy skin disease vaccines to Indonesia, (2023). https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/news/australia-delivers-lumpy-skin-disease-vaccines-to-indonesia
Tuppurainen, E. S. & Oura, C. A. Review: lumpy skin disease: an emerging threat to Europe, the middle East and Asia. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 59, 40–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1865-1682.2011.01242.x (2012).
World Organisation for Animal Health. Lumpy Skin. Disease Tech. Disease Card, (2022). https://www.woah.org/en/document/lumpy-skin-disease-technical-disease-card/
Pruvot, M. et al. Supporting the development of sustainable wildlife health surveillance networks in Southeast Asia. Sci. Total Environ. 863 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160748 (2023). WildHealthNet.
Chihota, C. M., Rennie, L. F., Kitching, R. P. & Mellor, P. S. Mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). Epidemiol. Infect. 126, 317–321. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268801005179 (2001).
Issimov, A. et al. Mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by Stomoxys spp (Stomoxys calsitrans, Stomoxys sitiens, Stomoxys indica), diptera: muscidae. Animals 10 https://doi.org/10.3390/ani10030477 (2020).
Sohier, C. et al. Experimental evidence of mechanical lumpy skin disease virus transmission by Stomoxys calcitrans biting flies and haematopota spp. Horseflies. Sci. Rep. 9, 20076. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56605-6 (2019).
Tuppurainen, E. S. et al. Mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by rhipicephalus appendiculatus male ticks. Epidemiol. Infect. 141, 425–430. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268812000805 (2013).
Lubinga, J. C. et al. Evidence of transstadial and mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by amblyomma hebraeum ticks. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 62, 174–182. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12102 (2015).
Sanz-Bernardo, B. et al. Quantifying and modeling the acquisition and retention of lumpy skin disease virus by hematophagus insects reveals clinically but not subclinically affected cattle are promoters of viral transmission and key targets for control of disease outbreaks. J. Virol. 95, e02239–e02220. https://doi.org/10.1128/jvi.02239-20 (2021).
Imran, M., Hashmi, A. H., Khalique, F. & Iqbal, M. Z. Lumpy skin disease emerging problem in Pakistan. J. Clin. Cases Rep. 6, 128–132. https://doi.org/10.46619/joccr.2023.6-S11.1062 (2023).
Owada, K., Mahony, T. J., Ambrose, R. K., Hayes, B. J. & Soares Magalhães, R. J. Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia. Transbound Emerg Dis 3090226, (2024). https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/3090226 (2024).
Eagles, D., Deveson, T., Walker, P. J., Zalucki, M. P. & Durr, P. Evaluation of long-distance dispersal of Culicoides midges into Northern Australia using a migration model. Med. Vet. Entomol. 26, 334–340. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.01005.x (2012).
Hall, R. N., Torpy, J. R., Nye, R., Zalcman, E. & Cowled, B. D. A quantitative risk assessment for the incursion of lumpy skin disease virus into Australia via long-distance windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors. Prev. Vet. Med. 218, 105990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.105990 (2023).
World Organisation for Animal Health. in. Terrestrial Animal Health Code Volume I General Provisions (Office international des épizooties, 2024).
Meat & Livestock Australia. State of the Industry Report 2022: The Australian red meat and livestock industry, (2022). https://www.mla.com.au/globalassets/mla-corporate/prices--markets/documents/trends--analysis/soti-report/2879-mla-state-of-industry-report-2022_d6_low-res_spreads.pdf
Dairy Australia. In Focus 2022: The Australian dairy industry, (2023). https://cdn-prod.dairyaustralia.com.au/-/media/project/dairy-australia-sites/national-home/resources/2022/11/23/in-focus-2022/in-focus-2022_australian-dairy-industry.pdf
Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry. All Livestock Exports, (2023). https://www.agriculture.gov.au/biosecurity-trade/export/controlled-goods/live-animals/live-animal-export-statistics/livestock-exports-by-market
Australian Livestock Exporters’ Council. Economic impact, https://auslivestockexport.com/about-alec/economic-impact (no date).
Hall, R., Torpy, J., Nye, R., Zalcman, E. & Cowled, B. C08233: Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus into Australia Via non-regulated pathways - Final Report (Ausvet Pty Ltd, 2022).
Zalcman, E., Hall, R. & Cowled, B. Lumpy Skin Disease Risk Assessment: a Qualitative Assessment on Unregulated Pathways (Ausvet Pty Ltd, 2022).
Moise, A. et al. Monsoonal North Cluster Report, Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Cluster Reports (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2015).
Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry. National Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) Action Plan, (2022). https://www.agriculture.gov.au/biosecurity-trade/pests-diseases-weeds/animal/lumpy-skin-disease/national-action-plan
Willoughby, J. R. et al. Assessing and managing the risk of Aedes mosquito introductions via the global maritime trade network. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 18, e0012110–e0012110. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012110 (2024).
Yeruham, I. et al. Spread of lumpy skin disease in Israeli dairy herds. Vet. Rec. 137, 91–93. https://doi.org/10.1136/vr.137.4.91 (1995).
Saegerman, C. et al. Risk of introduction of lumpy skin disease in France by the import of vectors in animal trucks. PLoS One. 13, e0198506. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198506 (2018).
Calistri, P. et al. Lumpy skin disease: scientific and technical assistance on control and surveillance activities. EFSA J. 16, e05452. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5452 (2018).
Murray, M. D. The spread of ephemeral fever of Catize during the 1967–68 epizootic in Australia. Aust Vet. J. 46, 77–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-0813.1970.tb15925.x (1970).
Murray, M. D. Influences of vector biology on transmission of arboviruses and outbreaks of disease: the Culicoides brevitarsis model. Vet. Microbiol. 46, 91–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-1135(95)00075-L (1995).
The World Bank Group. Indonesia - Climatology | Climate Change Knowledge Portal, (2021). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/indonesia/climate-data-historical
Machado, G. et al. Mapping changes in the Spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 66, 2045–2057. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13253 (2019).
Selim, A., Manaa, E. & Khater, H. Seroprevalence and risk factors for lumpy skin disease in cattle in Northern Egypt. Trop. Anim. Health Prod. 53, 350. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-021-02786-0 (2021).
Kahana-Sutin, E., Klement, E., Lensky, I. & Gottlieb, Y. High relative abundance of the stable fly Stomoxys calcitrans is associated with lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Israeli dairy farms. Med. Vet. Entomol. 31, 150–160. https://doi.org/10.1111/mve.12217 (2017).
Rochon, K. et al. Stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae)—Biology, Management, and research needs. J. Integr. Pest Manag. 12 https://doi.org/10.1093/jipm/pmab029 (2021).
Yang, H. M., Macoris, M. L. G., Galvani, K. C., Andrighetti, M. T. M. & Wanderley, D. M. V. Assessing the effects of temperature on the population of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue. Epidemiol. Infect. 137, 1188–1202. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268809002040 (2009).
World Organization for Animal Health. WAHIS Events Management, (2024). https://wahis.woah.org/#/event-management
Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Tropical cyclone reports, (2024). http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/past-tropical-cyclones/
Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Tropical cyclone databases, (2024). http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/databases/
Creagh, S. The disease vectors, my friend, are blowing in the wind, (2013). https://theconversation.com/the-disease-vectors-my-friend-are-blowing-in-the-wind-16342
Oliveira, A. R. S., Piaggio, J., Cohnstaedt, L. W., McVey, D. S. & Cernicchiaro, N. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risk of introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the united States via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships. Prev. Vet. Med. 160, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.020 (2018).
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. HYSPLIT model limitations, product interpretation, and information, https://www.hysplit-pub.noaa.gov/hysplitpublic/limitations.html (no date).
Aguilar-Vega, C., Fernández-Carrión, E. & Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J. M. The possible route of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 3 into Sicily by windborne transportation of infected Culicoides spp. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 66, 1665–1673. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13201 (2019).
Bibard, A., Martinetti, D., Picado, A., Chalvet-Monfray, K. & Porphyre, T. Assessing the risk of windborne dispersal of Culicoides midges in emerging epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus outbreaks in France. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 2024 (5571195), 10115520245571195 (2024).
Jacquet, S. et al. Range expansion of the bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events. Sci. Rep. 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep27247 (2016).
GBIF Secretariat. GBIF | Global Biodiversity Information Facility, (2024). https://www.gbif.org
Stanger, K. J. & Bowden, T. R. Lumpy skin disease: a significant threat to Australia. Microbiol. Aust. 43, 186–189. https://doi.org/10.1071/MA22061 (2022).
World Organisation for Animal Health. Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals, twelfth edition 2023, (2023). https://www.woah.org/en/what-we-do/standards/codes-and-manuals/terrestrial-manual-online-access/
Thulasiraman, K. & Swamy, M. N. S. in Graphs: Theory and Algorithms (eds. K. Thulasiraman & M.N.S. Swamy) 118–119 (1992).
Gilbert, M. et al. Gridded Livestock of the World – 2015 (GLW 4), (2022). https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/glw_4
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. HYSPLIT - Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model, (2024). https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php
Acknowledgements
The Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) is the owner of, and contributed, materials used as a reference in the development of wind trajectory modelling code. The authors would like to thank Dr. Michelle Wille (The University of Melbourne) for her advice on Australian migratory birds.Australian climate data and tropical cyclone data used in the study were retrieved from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The authors retrieved LSD case data from the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) online database. WOAH bears no responsibility for the integrity or accuracy of the data contained herein, in particular due, but not limited to, any deletion, manipulation, or reformatting of data that may have occurred beyond its control.
Funding
This project was jointly supported by the Queensland Government Department of Primary Industries (DPI) and the University of Queensland.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualisation, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., R.K.A., B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; methodology, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., R.K.A., B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; validation, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., R.K.A., B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; formal analysis, K.O., R.N.H., and R.J.S.M.; investigation, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., R.K.A., B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; data curation, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., and R.J.S.M.; writing—original draft preparation, K.O.; writing—review and editing, K.O., A.C.-C., R.N.H., R.K.A., B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; visualisation, K.O. and R.N.H.; supervision, B.J.H., T.J.M., and R.J.S.M.; project administration, B.J.H. and R.J.S.M. All authors read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
Yes, all authors have competing interests. Kei Owada, Ben J. Hayes, Timothy J. Mahony, and Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães are employees of the University of Queensland. Adam C. Castonguay is an employee of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Robyn. N. Hall is an employee of Ausvet Pty. Ltd. Rebecca K. Ambrose is an employee of the Queensland Government Department of Primary Industries.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Owada, K., C. Castonguay, A., Hall, R.N. et al. A geospatial model of entry pathways of lumpy skin disease virus introduction into Australia. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39806-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39806-8
