Abstract
Oasis ecosystems, vital for water and food security in arid and semi-arid regions, are highly susceptible to degradation from climatic stress, fragile soils, and excessive groundwater withdrawal. This study assesses desertification dynamics in the Ternata Oasis (southeastern Morocco) by integrating remote sensing, machine learning (ML), hydrogeological fieldwork, and socioeconomic surveys. A multi-decadal monitoring framework (1984–2024) was developed using the full Landsat archive processed in Google Earth Engine, where a Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB) model was applied to map and track the spatial progression of land degradation over time. The GTB classifier achieved an overall accuracy of 87.2%, outperforming Random Forest (85.0%) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) (82.0%), confirming its effectiveness for long-term desertification monitoring in arid environments. To contextualize the biophysical data, semi-structured interviews were conducted with long-term oasis farmers. Their insights were thematically coded and triangulated with observed desertification patterns and hydrochemical indicators. Farmers confirmed increasing salinity stress, prohibitively high well-deepening costs, youth outmigration, and a growing number of palm grove fires—largely attributed to the accumulation of dead or dying trees made more flammable by drought and salt toxicity. The results reveal a sharp decline in vegetation health. The healthy oasis area contracted significantly, while desertified land expanded. Groundwater levels dropped markedly, and water salinity exceeded critical thresholds for date palm survival. These findings underscore the combined impact of climate variability and anthropogenic overexploitation in accelerating desertification in oasis systems and highlight the urgent need for integrated water and land management strategies.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Ait Lamqadem, A., Pradhan, B., Saber, H. & Rahimi, A. Desertification Sensitivity Analysis Using MEDALUS Model and GIS: A Case Study of the Oases of Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Sensors 18, 2230 (2018).
Berger, S., Bossenbroek, E., Beermann, L., Schäfer, A. J. & Znari, R. B. Riethmüller. Social-ecological interactions in the Draa River Basin, southern Morocco: Towards nature conservation and human well-being using the IPBES framework. Sci. Total Environ. 769, 144492 (2021).
Elmotawakkil, A. et al. Forecasting short-term rainfall patterns in arid and semi-arid regions using machine learning and deep learning models: a case study from Morocco. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 156, 436 (2025).
Kaczmarek, N. et al. Nature conservation in the Draa Basin (Morocco): History, present situation, and future challenges. J. Nat. Conserv. 127038 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127038 (2025).
Warner, N. et al. Integration of geochemical and isotopic tracers for elucidating water sources and salinization of shallow aquifers in the sub-Saharan Drâa Basin, Morocco. Appl. Geochem. 34, 140–151 (2013).
Devkota, K. P., Devkota, M., Rezaei, M. & Oosterbaan, R. Managing salinity for sustainable agricultural production in salt-affected soils of irrigated drylands. Agric. Syst. 198, 103390 (2022).
Karmaoui, A. & Moumane, A. Changes in the Environmental Vulnerability of Oasean System (desert oasis), Pilot Study in Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Expert Opin. Environ. Biol 5, (2016).
Khorrami, B., Valizadeh Kamran, K. & Roostaei, S. Assessment of Groundwater-Level Susceptibility to Degradation Based on Analytical Network Process (ANP). Int. J. Environ. Geoinformatics. 5, 314–324 (2018).
Khorrami, B., Ali, S., Sahin, O. G. & Gunduz, O. Model-coupled GRACE-based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin. Hydrol. Process. 37, e14893 (2023).
Silva-Novoa Sánchez, L. M., Bossenbroek, L., Schilling, J. & Berger, E. Governance and Sustainability Challenges in the Water Policy of Morocco 1995–2020: Insights from the Middle Draa Valley. Water 14, 2932 (2022).
Hagage, M., Abdulaziz, A. M., Elbeih, S. F. & Hewaidy, A. G. A. Monitoring soil salinization and waterlogging in the northeastern Nile Delta linked to shallow saline groundwater and irrigation water quality. Sci. Rep. 14, 27838 (2024).
Khorramı, B. Monitoring the Spatio-Temporal Trends of Groundwater Qualitative Parameters through Geostatistical Tools. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences vol. 37 1466–1479Yildiz Technical University, (2019).
Al-Dakheel, A. J., Hussain, M. I., Abdulrahman, A. & Abdullah, A. Long term assessment of salinity impact on fruit yield in eighteen date palm varieties. Agric. Water Manage. 269, 107683 (2022).
Sathiyamurthi, S. et al. Advancing Agricultural Land Suitability in Urbanized Semi-Arid Environments: Insights from Geospatial and Machine Learning Approaches. IJGI 13, 436 (2024).
Youssef, Y. M. et al. Natural and Anthropogenic Coastal Environmental Hazards: An Integrated Remote Sensing, GIS, and Geophysical-based Approach. Surv. Geophys. 42, 1109–1141 (2021).
Xu, Z., Liang, W., Lei, J., Wu, Y. & Wang, Z. Monitoring and assessment of desertification reversal in ecologically fragile areas: A case study of the Mu Us Sandy Land. J. Environ. Manage. 373, 123695 (2025).
Youssef, Y. M., Gemail, K. S., Atia, H. M. & Mahdy, M. Insight into land cover dynamics and water challenges under anthropogenic and climatic changes in the eastern Nile Delta: Inference from remote sensing and GIS data. Sci. Total Environ. 913, 169690 (2024).
Badioui, K., Van Griensven, A. & Verbeiren, B. Vegetation Monitoring of Palm Trees in an Oasis Environment (Boudenib, Morocco) Using Automatic Processing of Medium-Resolution Remotely Sensed Data. Geosciences 15, 104 (2025).
Rivera-Marin, D., Dash, J. & Ogutu, B. The use of remote sensing for desertification studies: A review. J. Arid Environ. 206, 104829 (2022).
Qi, J., Chehbouni, A., Huete, A. R., Kerr, Y. H. & Sorooshian, S. A modified soil adjusted vegetation index. Remote Sens. Environ. 48, 119–126 (1994).
Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195–213 (2002).
Lamchin, M. et al. Assessment of land cover change and desertification using remote sensing technology in a local region of Mongolia. Adv. Space Res. 57, 64–77 (2016).
Boali, A., Asgari, H. R., Mohammadian Behbahani, A., Salmanmahiny, A. & Naimi, B. Remotely sensed desertification modeling using ensemble of machine learning algorithms. Remote Sens. Applications: Soc. Environ. 34, 101149 (2024).
Zhang, C., Tan, N. & Li, J. Aeolian Desertification Dynamics from 1995 to 2020 in Northern China: Classification Using a Random Forest Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Google Earth Engine. Remote Sens. 16, 3100 (2024).
Hashemi, Z., Sodaeizadeh, H., Mokhtari, M. H., Ardakani, M. A. H. & Aliabadi, K. K. Monitoring and forecasting desertification and land degradation using remote sensing and machine learning techniques in Sistan plain, Iran. J. Afr. Earth Sc. 218, 105375 (2024).
Moumane, A. et al. Monitoring long-term land use, land cover change, and desertification in the Ternata oasis, Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Remote Sens. Applications: Soc. Environ. 26, 100745 (2022).
RGPH. Recensement général de la population et de l’habitat 2014. (2024). https://www.recensement.ma/
Wen, Y. et al. Desertification detection model in Naiman Banner based on the albedo-modified soil adjusted vegetation index feature space using the Landsat8 OLI images. Geomatics Nat. Hazards Risk. 11, 544–558 (2020).
Eliades, F., Hadjimitsis, D. & Danezis, C. Detecting changes in vegetation and climate that serve as early warning signal on land degradation using remote sensing: a review. in Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology XXIII (eds (eds Neale, C. M. & Maltese, A.) 45 (SPIE, Online Only, Spain, doi:https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2600284. (2021).
Zhao, Y., Chang, C., Zhou, X., Zhang, G. & Wang, J. Land use significantly improved grassland degradation and desertification states in China over the last two decades. J. Environ. Manage. 349, 119419 (2024).
Pan, J. & Li, T. Extracting desertification from Landsat TM imagery based on spectral mixture analysis and Albedo-Vegetation feature space. Nat. Hazards. 68, 915–927 (2013).
El Qorchi, F. et al. Analyzing Temporal Patterns of Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought Incidents: A Comprehensive Study of Environmental Trends in the Upper Draa Basin, Morocco. Water 15, 3906 (2023).
En-Nagre, K. et al. Assessment and prediction of meteorological drought using machine learning algorithms and climate data. Clim. Risk Manage. 45, 100630 (2024).
Moumane, A. et al. Remote Sensing, and Machine Learning to Optimize Sustainable Groundwater Recharge in Arid Mediterranean Landscapes: A Case Study from the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Water 17, 2336 (2025). Integrating GIS.
Maas, E. V. & Hoffman, G. J. Crop Salt Tolerance—Current Assessment. J. Irrig. Drain. Div. 103, 115–134 (1977).
Tripler, E., Ben-Gal, A. & Shani, U. Consequence of salinity and excess boron on growth, evapotranspiration and ion uptake in date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L., cv. Medjool). Plant. Soil. 297, 147–155 (2007).
Meskour, A., Ahattab, J., Aachib, M. & Hasnaoui, M. D. Assessing the impact of drought and upstream dam construction on agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions: a case study of the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Environ. Monit. Assess. 197, 236 (2025).
Ben Khalfallah, C. et al. Monitoring Vegetation Change in Tozeur Oases in Southern Tunisia by Using Trend Analysis of MODIS NDVI Time Series (2000–2016). Can. J. Remote. Sens. 47, 535–553 (2021).
Karmaoui, A. et al. Thirty Years of Change in the Land Use and Land Cover of the Ziz Oases (Pre-Sahara of Morocco) Combining Remote Sensing, GIS, and Field Observations. Land 12, 2127 (2023).
Moumane, A., Al Karkouri, J. & Mouhcine, B. Detailed JavaScript API for Google Earth Engine to Enhance Monitoring of Surface Water Dynamics in the Drought-Affected Mediterranean Region: in Advances in Geospatial Technologies (eds Batchi, M. & Moumane, A.) 105–132IGI Global, (2024). https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-9651-3.ch004
Rizki, M. et al. The impact of climate change on snow cover reduction in the bare karst system of the Ait Abdi Plateau (Central High Atlas, Morocco). Med. Geosc Rev. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-025-00182-6 (2025).
Amiha, R. et al. Climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the Zagora Oasis, southern Morocco: a time series analysis and projection to 2050. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 155, 9767–9781 (2024).
Lamaamri, M. et al. Evaluation of Desertification in the Middle Moulouya Basin (North-East Morocco) Using Sentinel-2 Images and Spectral Index Techniques. Earth Syst. Environ. 7, 473–492 (2023).
Fico, J. Frontiers of fortune: mobilising land, water, and collective identity for watermelon production in Southeastern Morocco. J. North. Afr. Stud. 1–24 https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2024.2404952 (2024).
Sraïri, M. T. & Ouidat, L. Understanding diversified oasis farms’ economic performances through an analysis of labor uses and their relation to the invested capital. J. OASIS AGRIC. SUSTAIN. DEV. 4, 18–32 (2022).
RGPH. Recensement général de la population et de l’habitat 2014. (2014). https://rgph2014.hcp.ma/downloads/Resultats-RGPH-2014_t18649.html
Moumane, A. et al. GIS, remote sensing, and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach for rainwater harvesting site selection in arid regions: Feija Plain case study, Zagora (Morocco). Appl. Geomat. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-024-00585-4 (2024).
Rasul, A. et al. Applying Built-Up and Bare-Soil Indices from Landsat 8 to Cities in Dry Climates. Land 7, 81 (2018).
Acknowledgements
The authors extend their appreciation to the Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University Researchers Supporting Project number (PNURSP2026R680), Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Funding
This research was funded by the Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University Researchers Supporting Project number (PNURSP2026R680), Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Adil Moumane: Conceptualization; Methodology; Software; Validation; Formal analysis; Investigation; Resources; Data curation; Visualization; Writing – original draft; Writing – review & editing.- Youssef Azougarh: Methodology; Formal analysis; Validation.- Abdelhaq Ait Enajar: Data curation.- Ismail Bahdou: Data curation.- Jamal Al Karkouri: Supervision; Project administration.- Wafa Saleh Alkhuraiji : Visualization; Writing – review & editing and Project administration- Faten Nahas : Formal analysis; Writing – review & editing- Nazih Y. Rebou : Writing – review & editing- Youssef M. Youssef : Formal analysis; Writing – review & editing.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Moumane, A., Azougarh, Y., Enajar, A.A. et al. Desertification monitoring in arid oasis environments using Google Earth Engine machine learning and field based hydrogeological assessment. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41216-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41216-9
