Fig. 2
From: Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change
The total global trade of four commodities: coarse grains, oilseeds, rice and wheat, among 14 regions averaged for the period 2050–2059 under two RCP scenarios. The’ colours of the links in the circular plots correspond to the exporting regions. The circles are scaled according to the total global trade for the corresponding years. The base year (top left) shows total global trade in 2015. The RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios account for the effect of climate change on agricultural production and emission trajectories for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The CSIRO version of the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM-C), a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model, was used to project the global economy. Agricultural productivities within GTEM-C were exogenously forced with data from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). This is, changes in agricultural productivity rates were not internally calculated by GTEM-C but given by the AgMIP projections. The regions are: Brazil (BR); China (CN); East Asia (EA); Europe (EU); India (IN); Latin America (LA); Middle East and North Africa (ME); North America (NA); Oceania (OC); Russia and neighbour countries (RU); South Asia (SA); South East Asia (SE); Sub-Saharan Africa (SS) and the United States of America (US)
