Fig. 4: Predicted effects on Twitter engagement among Republicans.

Predicted effects on a retweet and b favorite counts leading up to the 2018 US mid-term elections (09 October–06 November 2018) among Republicans. Conditional R2 (0.794) and Ω2 (0.792) measure the model’s variance between the observed and the predicted response. Recoded #, @, URL and emoji to dummy variables (x = 1 for a given tweet contains the feature). Bands reflect 95% CIs with follower/friend counts, race competitiveness and incumbency as offset variables. *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, and ***p < 0.001 based on an F-test.