Fig. 3: Modelled and observed migration flows at the bilateral level.
From: Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics
In panels a–d, the R2 values represented by markers correspond to the comparisons shown in Fig. 1a–d, respectively. Boxplots (not showing outliers, which are as small as −663, −1.2 × 106, −7.7, and −89 for Models 1–4, respectively) represent the set of \(R_{ij}^2\) values obtained from the comparison of modelled and observed annual data over time for each specific country of origin i and destination j (Eq. (8)). Five examples of these scenarios are shown for the models e without and f with fixed effects. Blue lines represent observed migration flows, orange lines represent modelled data. By design of the fixed-effects models, flows simulated by the Models 3 and 4 intersect the observed time-series at least once.
