Fig. 1: Model results in terms of technology’s quality as a function of generation.

We run 1000 simulations of 1000 generations for each model and averaged the technology’s quality between simulations. Common parameter values for all models: n = 2, θ = 5, βimprove = 1.2, βdeteriorate = 0.8. A Model with refinement only, limit(tech) = 2. B Model with refinement only, where each model has a different limit: top left: limit(tech) = 2 (same as A); top right: limit(tech) = 5; bottom left: limit(tech) = 10; bottom right: limit(tech) = 20. C Model with refinement and innovation, limit(tech) = 2, pinnovation = 0.01. The black dashed horizontal line represents the maximal value the technology may take accounting for the parameters and ten innovations (an innovation every 100 generations; pinnovation = 0.01). D Results from the synthesis (for more information, see supplementary material S3Synthesis), mean score as a function of generation.