Table 2 Regression of fraud incidence on COVID-19 cases.

From: Vulnerability and fraud: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Independent variable

Dependent variable: ∆SCAM_CASES

Coef.

Std. err.

p-value

LAG∆COVID_ CASES

0.1285

0.0383

0.001

LAG7-DAY_AVERAGE_MARKET_RETURN

−6.9210

2.1595

0.002

DAILY_MARKET_RETURN

0.2069

0.6505

0.751

SAD

0.1681

0.0498

0.001

GOVERNMENT_STRINGENCY_INDEX

0.0071

0.0016

0.000

NON_TRADING_DAY_DUMMY

−0.0095

0.0350

0.786

Intercept

−0.4330

0.1116

<0.001

N

208

Adj. R2

0.1099

  1. This table reports the baseline regression results for the relationship between the lagged COVID-19 spread and the increasing occurrence of scams and fraud cases. The dependent variable, ∆SCAM_CASES refers to the daily growth rate of scam cases. It is calculated as [LN(SCAM_CASESt/SCAM_CASESt–7)]/7, where SCAM_CASESt and SCAM_CASESt–7 are the number of reported fraud cases on days t and t–7, respectively. The independent variable LAG∆COVID_ CASES refers to the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and is calculated as [LN(COVID_CASESt–1/COVID_CASESt–8)]/7, where COVID_CASESt–1 and COVID_CASESt–8 are the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on days t–1 and t–8, respectively. The other control variables are defined in the Supplementary Appendix.
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