Table 7 Summary of simulation results for Shanghai under each scenario.

From: Dynamic simulation research on urban green transformation under the target of carbon emission reduction: the example of Shanghai

Time (Year)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

GDP (billion)

I

38,339

40,411

42,171

43,585

44,616

45,235

45,418

II

38,886

41,138

43,110

44,762

46,054

46,954

47,451

III

38,339

40,411

42,170

43,580

44,609

45,229

45,409

IV

38,339

40,411

42,172

43,589

44,629

45,286

45,524

V

37,807

39,573

40,885

41,666

41,835

41,316

40,039

VI

38,978

41,203

43,099

44,604

45,665

46,234

46,276

Total energy consumption (million tons of standard coal)

I

11,952

12,022

12,186

12,334

12,465

12,572

12,661

II

11,974

12,247

12,539

12,833

13,122

13,398

13,655

III

11,952

12,022

12,186

12,334

12,465

12,572

12,660

IV

11,952

12,012

12,165

12,304

12,424

12,523

12,603

V

11,931

11,990

12,133

12,253

12,342

12,393

12,407

VI

11,978

12,239

12,518

12,794

13,058

13,301

13,514

Carbon emissions (million tons)

I

26,750

26,801

27,035

27,207

27,310

26,970

26,924

II

26,798

27,302

27,820

28,309

27,984

27,965

28,256

III

26,750

26,847

27,115

27,310

27,058

27,081

27,021

IV

26,750

26,778

26,989

26,776

26,493

26,499

26,438

V

26,703

26,728

26,918

27,026

27,041

26,945

26,741

VI

26,806

27,332

27,856

27,952

27,582

27,103

26,503

Carbon intensity (Tons / million yuan)

I

0.6977

0.6632

0.6411

0.6242

0.6121

0.5962

0.5928

II

0.6891

0.6637

0.6453

0.6324

0.6076

0.5956

0.5955

III

0.6977

0.6644

0.6430

0.6267

0.6066

0.5988

0.5951

IV

0.6977

0.6627

0.6400

0.6143

0.5936

0.5851

0.5807

V

0.7063

0.6754

0.6584

0.6486

0.6464

0.6522

0.6679

VI

0.6877

0.6634

0.6463

0.6267

0.6040

0.5862

0.5727

Carbon emissions costs (billion)

I

141

156

175

193

210

220

234

II

141

163

186

210

222

238

261

III

141

157

176

194

206

222

236

IV

141

156

174

186

196

211

225

V

191

227

268

308

346

381

413

VI

170

211

255

292

319

341

357