Table 12 Estimation results after breaking the policy variable into quantiles.

From: The COVID-19 pandemics and import demand elasticities: evidence from China’s customs data

All trade modes

All goods: (1)-(3)

Intermediate inputs: (4)-(6)

Monthly: 2019m1 to 2021m3

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

 

Y= Δ ln v

Y= Δ ln uv

Y= Δ ln q

Y= Δ ln v

Y= Δ ln uv

Y= Δ ln q

Δ ln RER_CNY

1.935*** (0.420)

−0.00210 (0.077)

1.986*** (0.436)

2.260*** (0.407)

−0.0963 (0.108)

2.460*** (0.385)

Δ ln RER_CNY × Policy (1st)

0.401 (1.166)

−0.521* (0.305)

0.626 (1.492)

0.773 (1.109)

−0.432 (0.270)

0.834 (1.389)

Δ ln RER_CNY × Policy (2nd)

−2.305*** (0.655)

0.0118 (0.145)

−2.277*** (0.671)

−2.892*** (0.547)

0.141 (0.164)

−3.012*** (0.682)

Δ ln RER_CNY × Policy (3rd)

−2.397*** (0.475)

−0.0799 (0.118)

−2.377*** (0.516)

−2.630*** (0.548)

0.0630 (0.105)

−2.725*** (0.520)

Δ ln RER_CNY × Policy (4th)

−2.295*** (0.543)

−0.0367 (0.126)

−2.388*** (0.612)

−2.740*** (0.673)

−0.171 (0.204)

−2.791*** (0.783)

Δ ln RER_Comp

0.112*** (0.011)

0.0129*** (0.002)

0.0982*** (0.011)

0.0994*** (0.011)

0.00797*** (0.002)

0.0892*** (0.011)

Δ ln RER_Comp × Policy (1st)

−0.0171*** (0.003)

0.00322 (0.003)

−0.0112*** (0.003)

−0.0124** (0.005)

0.00387 (0.003)

0.00591 (0.005)

Δ ln RER_Comp × Policy (2nd)

−0.0219*** (0.005)

0.00453** (0.002)

−0.0145*** (0.003)

−0.0179*** (0.005)

0.00217 (0.002)

−0.0126** (0.005)

Δ ln RER_Comp × Policy (3rd)

−0.0161** (0.007)

−0.00297* (0.002)

−0.0115* (0.006)

−0.0179** (0.007)

−0.000108 (0.002)

−0.0164** (0.008)

Δ ln RER_Comp × Policy (4th)

−0.0562*** (0.008)

−0.00889** (0.004)

−0.0442*** (0.008)

−0.0525*** (0.009)

−0.00544** (0.003)

−0.0427*** (0.010)

Constant

−0.191*** (0.065)

−0.122 (0.089)

−0.0505 (0.153)

−0.138*** (0.009)

−0.00812** (0.004)

−0.107*** (0.008)

Controls

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Province-time FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Province-product-country FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Time FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

N

2352568

2248753

2248764

1529934

1449191

1449192

R2

0.050

0.032

0.047

0.046

0.029

0.045

Prob > F-statistic

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

  1. Note: The policy variable is broken into 4 quartiles. We employ the Chinese customs data on China’s imports, which contain information regarding different Asian countries’ exports to different Chinese provinces. Columns (1) to (3) are for all types of goods, and Columns (4) to (6) are for inputs, classified by the Broad Economic Categories (BEC). An increase in ΔlnRER_Comp implies a real appreciation of competitors’ currencies, and an increase in ΔlnRER_CNY implies a real depreciation of RMB against that one Asian trading partner’s currency (bilateral). A larger HHI implies a higher degree of market concentration for Asian economies in exporting to China. Other explanatory variables are the same as the baseline specification. *, **, *** indicate variables significant at 10%, 5%, and 1% level respectively. Clustered standard errors at provincial level are reported in parenthesis.
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