Table 1 Variables descriptiona.

From: Facilitating fertility decline through economic development: a principal-agent analysis of local bureaucratic incentives in China’s fertility transition

Variable

Measurement

Mean

SD

TFR decline rate (%)

Ratio of present TFR to that of first tenure year − 1

4.359

17.276

TFR decline rate VS. the predecessor’s (%)

Difference between TFR decline and that of the predecessor’s

0.971

8.802

Per capita GDP growth (%)

 

45.643

71.333

CPI growth

Consumer Price Index growth

0.22

0.347

Age 59+

1 = Older than 59 years old

0.618

/

Industrialization growth

Industrial added value growth

0.376

0.097

Social investment growth

Total fixed assets investment growth

0.633

1.127

Electricity growth

Electricity power growth

0.228

0.423

Agri-machine energy growth

Total agricultural machine power growth

0.14

0.198

Education

1 = Higher than college

0.641

/

ln(TFR)

Logged Total Fertility Rate

0.618

0.372

Proximity to age 59

−1* absolute of age minus 59

−4.421

3.238

Proximity to turnover year

−1* absolute of year minus turnover year

−2.313

2.193

Age

Real age

59.884

5.409

1 year before turnover

One year before leaving office (1 = yes)

0.217

/

2 years before turnover

Two years before leaving office (1 = yes)

0.191

/

Central connection

1 = precedent incumbency in the central government

0.125

/

Per capita GDP (¥10,000)

 

0.323

0.393

Industrialization

Industrial added value/GDP

0.376

0.097

Divorce rate

Divorced counts/total population

0.146

0.088

Marriage rateb

Num. of registered first marriages (10,000)/total population

0.014

0.004

Rural female labor (%)

Female proportion in rural labor force

45.672

6.428

  1. aGrowth rate = value that year/value in the first year in office − 1.
  2. bThe observation of first marriage registrations in each province from 1980 to 1984 was missing. We used the complete data from 1985 to 2000 to fit the optimal random forest algorithm (test set R2 is 0.93) and fill in the missing values (n = 266). The number of registered first marriages accounts for the vast majority (96%) of the number of registered marriages.