Table 2 Promotion motivation and fertility decline performance.
FEM as baseline model | System GMM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
Dependent variable | ln(TFR) | Per capita GDP | Industrialization | ln(TFR) | ln(TFR) | Per capita GDP | Industrialization | ln(TFR) |
Age | −0.045* (0.018) | −0.053* (0.021) | ||||||
Age2 (*103) | 0.380* (0.151) | 0.448* (0.183) | ||||||
Proximity to age 59 | 0.001* (0.000) | 0.001* (0.000) | −0.005** (0.002) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001** (0.000) | −0.005** (0.002) | ||
Proximity to turnover year | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.002* (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) | 0.000 (0.002) | ||
1 year before turnover | −0.013+ (0.007) | −0.003 (0.003) | 0.003+ (0.002) | −0.013+ (0.007) | −0.015* (0.007) | −0.004 (0.003) | 0.003+ (0.002) | −0.013+ (0.008) |
2 years before turnover | −0.012 (0.012) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.003+ (0.002) | −0.013 (0.012) | −0.008 (0.015) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.002) | −0.009 (0.014) |
Central connection | −0.005 (0.012) | −0.014+ (0.007) | 0.001 (0.002) | −0.003 (0.012) | −0.007 (0.014) | −0.009 (0.007) | 0.000 (0.003) | −0.005 (0.013) |
Education (college+ = 1) | −0.036* (0.015) | 0.000 (0.003) | 0.003+ (0.001) | −0.036* (0.014) | −0.026+ (0.016) | 0.012** (0.004) | 0.001 (0.002) | −0.024+ (0.014) |
Per capita GDP | −0.049* (0.020) | −0.049* (0.020) | −0.049** (0.017) | −0.050** (0.018) | ||||
Industrialization | −0.322** (0.107) | −0.326** (0.106) | −0.159* (0.065) | −0.152* (0.066) | ||||
Urbanization | −0.045 (0.081) | 0.045+ (0.026) | 0.019 (0.013) | −0.039 (0.081) | 0.028 (0.023) | 0.065* (0.027) | 0.021* (0.010) | 0.030 (0.021) |
Rural female labor | 0.000 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.001* (0.000) | −0.000+ (0.000) | 0.000 (0.001) |
Divorce rate | −0.479*** (0.097) | 0.184*** (0.036) | −0.061*** (0.014) | −0.472*** (0.096) | −0.310*** (0.049) | 0.080* (0.037) | −0.033* (0.015) | −0.303*** (0.052) |
Marriage rate | −0.332 (1.768) | −0.539 (0.453) | 0.610** (0.196) | −0.162 (1.752) | −0.306 (1.898) | −1.052+ (0.601) | 1.003*** (0.196) | −0.365 (1.957) |
Lagged Per capita GDP | 1.065*** (0.010) | 1.047*** (0.009) | ||||||
Lagged Industrialization rate | 0.838*** (0.024) | 0.868*** (0.030) | ||||||
Lagged ln(TFR) | 0.893*** (0.012) | 0.778*** (0.023) | 0.815*** (0.022) | 0.818*** (0.024) | ||||
Constant | 1.514** (0.457) | 0.022 (0.025) | 0.013 (0.012) | 0.325** (0.099) | 1.743** (0.627) | −0.016 (0.013) | 0.042** (0.014) | 0.185*** (0.049) |
Obs | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 |
Province-fixed | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
corr(x, ui) | −0.198 | 0.184 | 0.687 | −0.186 | ||||
Wald | 72,989 | 55,362 | 136,920 | 64,911 | ||||
P - AR(2) | 0.375 | 0.181 | 0.362 | 0.413 | ||||
P - Hansen test | 0.374 | 0.385 | 0.375 | 0.381 | ||||
