Table 3 OLM: the assessment of fertility decline performance of provincial leaders.
(9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline | Linear performance | Curve performance | Vs. Predecessor | |
Lagged TFR | −0.595*** (0.153) | −0.288+ (0.173) | −0.326+ (0.176) | −0.822*** (0.244) |
TFR decline | 0.012* (0.005) | 0.026*** (0.005) | 0.028*** (0.006) | |
(TFR decline)2 (*104) | −3.759* (1.566) | |||
TFR decline (vs. predecessor) | 0.024* (0.011) | |||
Age (59+ = 1) | −1.511*** (0.193) | −1.470*** (0.194) | −1.567*** (0.253) | |
Per capita GDP growth | 0.012* (0.052) | 0.012* (0.051) | 0.024** (0.009) | |
CPI growth | −1.980** (0.673) | −1.819** (0.675) | −4.035*** (1.115) | |
Education (college+ = 1) | 0.716* (0.298) | 0.660* (0.300) | 0.673+ (0.406) | |
Industrialization growth | −0.084 (1.289) | −0.202 (1.278) | 0.068 (1.782) | |
Social investment growth | −0.441* (0.218) | −0.379+ (0.216) | −0.365 (0.354) | |
Electricity growth | 0.216 (0.188) | 0.222 (0.186) | 0.083 (0.301) | |
Agri-machine energy growth | −0.462 (0.654) | −0.516 (0.658) | −0.600 (0.839) | |
/cut1 | −0.350 (0.734) | −1.169 (0.955) | −1.211 (0.951) | −2.183 (1.535) |
/cut2 | 1.661* (0.746) | 1.120 (0.973) | 1.089 (0.968) | 0.321 (1.552) |
Province-fixed | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Obs | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 743 |
Wald λ2 | 23,069 | 15,092 | 15,458 | 18,787 |
Likelyhood | −820.1 | −745 | −742 | −480.9 |
