Table 4 Robust tests: promotion motivation and fertility decline performance (PPRs TFR-based).
Dependent variable: | FEM as baseline model | System GMM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
ln(PPRs TFR) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
Lagged ln(TFR) | 0.886*** (0.011) | 0.889*** (0.011) | 0.909*** (0.018) | 0.918*** (0.018) |
Age | −0.019* (0.008) | −0.021* (0.010) | ||
Age2 (*103) | 0.160* (0.069) | 0.179* (0.086) | ||
Proximity to age 59 | −0.002+ (0.001) | −0.002+ (0.001) | ||
Proximity to turnover year | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | ||
1 year before turnover | −0.021*** (0.005) | −0.024*** (0.005) | −0.025*** (0.005) | −0.026*** (0.005) |
2 years before turnover | −0.006 (0.005) | −0.007 (0.005) | −0.006 (0.006) | −0.007 (0.007) |
Central connection | 0.001 (0.008) | 0.001 (0.008) | −0.004 (0.010) | −0.003 (0.009) |
Education (college+ = 1) | −0.009 (0.007) | −0.005 (0.006) | −0.001 (0.007) | 0.003 (0.006) |
Per capita GDP | −0.010 (0.008) | −0.010 (0.008) | 0.005 (0.010) | 0.006 (0.010) |
Industrialization | −0.258*** (0.053) | −0.260*** (0.053) | −0.121*** (0.035) | −0.110** (0.034) |
Urbanization | −0.041** (0.013) | −0.041** (0.013) | −0.031* (0.012) | −0.031* (0.012) |
Divorce rate | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.000) | 0.000 (0.000) |
Rural female labor | −0.067 (0.044) | −0.062 (0.043) | −0.078* (0.033) | −0.067* (0.032) |
Marriage rate | 1.774+ (0.981) | 1.922+ (1.010) | 2.057* (0.934) | 2.171* (0.958) |
Constant | 0.713** (0.227) | 0.117* (0.045) | 0.690* (0.310) | 0.038 (0.035) |
Obs | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 | 1086 |
Province-fixed | YES | YES | YES | YES |
corr(x, ui) | −0.064 | −0.065 | ||
Wald | 146,647 | 158,011 | ||
P - AR(2) | 0.290 | 0.360 | ||
P - Hansen test | 0.375 | 0.377 | ||
