Table 1 Test performance of the predictive models.
From: Measuring employment readiness for hard-to-place individuals
Admin | ERIQ | Admin+ERIQ | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC-ROC | 95% CI | AUC-PR | AUC-ROC | 95% CI | AUC-PR | AUC-ROC | 95% CI | AUC-PR | ||||
Employed within a year | ||||||||||||
Linear probability model | 62.96 | 57.33 | 68.60 | 8.98 | 80.69 | 76.73 | 84.64 | 20.02 | 77.65 | 73.26 | 82.04 | 17.33 |
Logistic LASSO | 63.63 | 58.24 | 69.02 | 9.31 | 82.51 | 78.43 | 86.59 | 25.59 | 82.23 | 78.27 | 86.19 | 21.35 |
Random forest | 60.60 | 54.94 | 66.25 | 9.01 | 83.31 | 79.58 | 87.05 | 26.70 | 84.31 | 80.85 | 87.76 | 24.03 |
XGBoost | 63.63 | 57.75 | 69.50 | 9.87 | 83.48 | 79.72 | 87.25 | 27.51 | 83.73 | 79.99 | 87.47 | 24.89 |
Outcome rate: 5.51% | ||||||||||||
Applying for a job | ||||||||||||
Linear probability model | 67.18 | 64.38 | 69.98 | 41.21 | 83.00 | 80.88 | 85.11 | 61.04 | 84.39 | 82.37 | 86.41 | 62.12 |
Logistic LASSO | 67.67 | 64.89 | 70.46 | 41.61 | 83.43 | 81.37 | 85.49 | 60.93 | 85.54 | 83.62 | 87.45 | 63.66 |
Random forest | 69.06 | 66.31 | 71.81 | 43.16 | 83.90 | 81.92 | 85.88 | 61.16 | 85.32 | 83.42 | 87.21 | 63.00 |
XGBoost | 68.53 | 65.76 | 71.31 | 42.46 | 84.24 | 82.27 | 86.20 | 62.76 | 86.32 | 84.50 | 88.13 | 66.05 |
Outcome rate: 24.46% | ||||||||||||
In education within a year | ||||||||||||
Linear probability model | 80.27 | 74.30 | 86.25 | 20.74 | 74.99 | 68.61 | 81.38 | 10.16 | 82.72 | 76.71 | 88.73 | 26.13 |
Logistic LASSO | 80.74 | 74.89 | 86.59 | 20.06 | 76.74 | 70.79 | 82.70 | 8.35 | 86.71 | 82.20 | 91.22 | 28.88 |
Random forest | 82.67 | 76.82 | 88.52 | 15.74 | 72.79 | 65.61 | 79.98 | 8.18 | 85.50 | 80.38 | 90.62 | 19.67 |
XGBoost | 80.67 | 74.45 | 86.88 | 16.23 | 75.62 | 69.24 | 82.00 | 9.42 | 86.63 | 81.63 | 91.63 | 24.87 |
Outcome rate: 3.07% | ||||||||||||
Employed or in education within a year | ||||||||||||
Linear probability model | 68.79 | 64.15 | 73.43 | 19.37 | 81.05 | 77.65 | 84.46 | 28.22 | 81.21 | 77.56 | 84.86 | 31.37 |
Logistic LASSO | 68.62 | 64.05 | 73.19 | 19.17 | 81.50 | 78.10 | 84.89 | 32.08 | 82.94 | 79.47 | 86.42 | 36.68 |
Random forest | 69.17 | 64.74 | 73.61 | 19.96 | 80.87 | 77.29 | 84.44 | 32.35 | 85.19 | 82.26 | 88.13 | 38.05 |
XGBoost | 70.17 | 65.78 | 74.57 | 20.72 | 81.50 | 78.04 | 84.96 | 33.43 | 84.06 | 80.74 | 87.39 | 41.26 |
Outcome rate: 8.42% |