Abstract
Due to the uneven spatial distribution of water resources between northern and southern China, cross-regional water resource management has emerged as a major challenge to achieving sustainable development. The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project, as the largest inter-basin water transfer initiative in China, aims to optimize water resource allocation. However, the specific impact of the project on regional coordinated development capacities (RCDC) in both the water source and receiving areas remains unclear. RCDC refers to a region’s capacity to achieve balanced development across economic growth, social advancement, and ecological sustainability. This study investigates the mechanisms through which the SNWD project influences RCDC, focusing on water constraint alleviation in water receiving areas and industrial structure upgrading in water source areas. We assess the impact of the SNWD project on RCDC in both the water source and receiving areas using city-level data. Our findings are as follows: (1) The project is associated with improvements in regional coordinated development in both water-receiving and water source areas, with effects primarily driven by economic development. (2) In the water source areas, the positive impact of the project on RCDC is primarily attributed to the alleviation of water resource constraints. (3) In the water receiving areas, the enhancement of RCDC is driven by qualitative industrial upgrading.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data is provided within the manuscript or supplementary information file.
References
Amano Y, Sakai Y, Sekiya T, Takeya K, Taki K, Machida M (2010) Effect of phosphorus fluctuation caused by river water dilution in eutrophic lake on competition between blue-green alga microcystis aeruginosa and diatom cyclotella sp. J Environ Sci 22(11):1666–1673
Avazdahandeh S, Khalilian S (2021) The effect of urbanization on agricultural water consumption and production: The extended positive mathematical programming approach. Environ Geochem Health 43(1):247–258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-020-00668-2
Balat M (2003) Southeastern anatolia project (GAP) of turkey and regional development applications. Energy Explor Exploit 21(5):391–404. https://doi.org/10.1260/014459803322986231
Berkoff J (2003) China: The south–north water transfer project—Is it justified? Water Policy 5(1):1–28
Berrittella M., Rehdanz K, Tol RS (2006) The economic impact of the South-North water transfer project in China: A computable general equilibrium analysis
Blakeslee D (2023) Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India. J Dev Econ
Blakeslee D, Fishman R, Srinivasan V (2020) Way down in the hole: Adaptation to long-term water loss in rural India. Am Econ Rev 110(1):200–224. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180976
Bolin B, Collins T, Darby K (2008) Fate of the Verde: Water, environmental conflict, and the politics of scale in Arizona’s central highlands. Geoforum 39(3):1494–1511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2008.02.003
Chang J, Wang Y, Huang Q (2011) Water dispatch model for middle route of a south-to-north water transfer project in China 1. J Am Water Resour Assoc 47(1):70–80
Chen H, Yang L, Zhao M (2010) The Influence and Function of Inter-basin Water Transfer Project in Alleviating Water Shortage of the Yellow River (H. Shang & X. Luo, Eds.; WOS:000277833800058; pp. 441–447)
Chen H-C, Du P (2008) Potential ecological benefits of the middle route for the south-north water diversion project. Tsinghua Sci Technol 13(5):715–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1007-0214(08)70116-0
Chen L-Y, Hsieh W-Z, Chou R-J (2021) The impact of the construction of large reservoirs on the cultural landscape: A case study of the Shimen Reservoir, Taiwan. Land, 10(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/land10111161
Chenery HB (1960) Patterns of industrial growth. Am Econ Rev 50(4):624–654
Clark, C. (1967). The conditions of economic progress
Crow-Miller B, Webber M (2017) Of maps and eating bitterness: The politics of scaling in China’s south-north water transfer project. Polit Geogr 61:19–30
Curley A (2021) Infrastructures as colonial beachheads: The central arizona project and the taking of navajo resources. Environ Plan D: Soc Space 39(3):387–404
Dai J, Wu S, Wu X, Lv X, Sivakumar B, Wang F, Zhang Y, Yang Q, Gao A, Zhao Y (2020) Impacts of a large river-to-lake water diversion project on lacustrine phytoplankton communities. J Hydrol 587:124938
Dai W, Yu E, Ni Z (2024) Does coordinated water resource allocation promote high-quality economic development? A quasi-natural experiment based on the south-to-north water diversion project in China. A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based On The South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China (January 25, 2024)
Dong Z, Yan Y, Duan J, Fu X, Zhou Q, Huang X, Zhu X, Zhao J (2011) Computing payment for ecosystem services in watersheds: An analysis of the middle route project of south-to-north water diversion in China. J Environ Sci 23(12):2005–2012
Du J, Zhang Y (2018) Does one belt one road initiative promote Chinese overseas direct investment? China Economic Rev 47:189–205
du Plessis A, du Plessis A (2017) Global water scarcity and possible conflicts. Freshwater Challenges of South Africa and Its Upper Vaal River: Current State And Outlook, 45–62
Duflo E, Pande R (2007) Dams. Q J Econ 122(2):601–646. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.2.601
Dvarioniene J, Stasiskiene Z (2007) Integrated water resource management model for process industry in Lithuania. J Clean Prod 15(10):950–957
Fang X, Roe TL, Smith RB (2015) Water shortages, intersectoral water allocation and economic growth: The case of China. China Agric Econ Rev 7(1):2–26
Flyvbjerg B (2014) What you should know about megaprojects and why: An overview. Proj Manag J 45(2):6–19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409
Flyvbjerg B, Holm MS, Buhl S (2002) Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie? J Am Plan Assoc 68(3):279–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273
Forest B, Forest P (2012) Engineering the North American waterscape: The high modernist mapping of continental water transfer projects. Political Geogr 31(3):167–183
Fu H (2016) Exploration of Tourism Development in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area under Background of South-to-North Water Transfer (H. Xu & Z. Zhang, Eds.; WOS:000378047900076; 54, pp. 361–365)
Fu H, Yang X (2019) Effects of the south-north water diversion project on the water dispatching pattern and ecological environment in the water receiving area: A case study of the Fuyang River Basin in Handan, China. Water 11(4):845
Fu S, Ma Z, Ni B, Peng J, Zhang L, Fu Q (2021) Research on the spatial differences of pollution-intensive industry transfer under the environmental regulation in China. Ecol Indic 129:107921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107921
Gao Y, Yu M (2018) Assessment of the economic impact of south-to-north water diversion project on industrial sectors in beijing. J Econ Struct 7:1–17
Gu W, Shao D, Jiang Y (2012) Risk evaluation of water shortage in source area of the middle route project for south-to-north water transfer in China. Water Resour Manag 26(12):3479–3493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0086-1
Harris L (2024) Farmer response to policy induced water reductions: Evidence from the Colorado River. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102986
Holland SP (2006) Privatization of water-resource development. Environ Resour Econ 34(2):291–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-006-0002-3
Hu B, Zhou J, Xu S, Chen Z, Wang J, Wang D, Wang L, Guo J, Meng W (2013) Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai New Area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis. Nat Hazards 66:873–886
Hu X, Hu M, Zhu Y, Wang G, Xue B, Shrestha S (2022) Phytoplankton community variation and ecological health assessment for impounded lakes along the eastern route of China’s south-to-north water diversion project. J Environ Manag 318:115561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115561
Huang G, Liu C, Xi T, Xu H, You W (2023) The Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Massive Water Diversion. Available at SSRN 4679022
Jia X, Li C, Jia J, Xu M (2013) Water Price Variation Analyses & Policy Suggestions on Typical Water Intake Areas in the South-North Water Transfer Project, China (Zhaoyin W, Lee J, Jizhang G, Shuyou C, Eds.; WOS:000343761501011; pp. 865–872)
Lewis WA (2013) Theory of economic growth. Routledge
Li Q, Xu Y, Zhao X, Xie J, Jiao T, Su Z (2024) Research on the livelihood capital and livelihood strategies of resettlement in China’s south-to-north water diversion middle line project. Front Sustain Food Syst, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1396705
Li W, He B-J, Qi J, Dong J (2018) Water conservation scenic spots in China: Developing the tourism potential of hydraulic projects and water resources. Sustainability, 10(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/su10124509
Li Y, Xiong W, Zhang W, Wang C, Wang P (2016) Life cycle assessment of water supply alternatives in water-receiving areas of the south-to-north water diversion project in China. Water Res 89:9–19
Liu J, Zang C, Tian S, Liu J, Yang H, Jia S, You L, Liu B, Zhang M (2013) Water conservancy projects in China: Achievements, challenges and way forward. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens 23(3):633–643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.02.002
Liu S (2002) Water pricing towards sustainability of water resources: A case study in Beijing. J Environ Sci 14(4):518–523
Ma L, Wang Q (2024) Do water transfer projects promote water use efficiency? Case study of south-to-north water transfer project in yellow river basin of China. Water, 16(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/w16101367
Miao Z, Sheng J, Webber M, Baležentis T, Geng Y, Zhou W (2018) Measuring water use performance in the cities along China’s south-north water transfer project. Appl Geogr 98:184–200
Molle F (2009) Why enough is never enough: The societal determinants of river basin closure. Int J Water Resour Dev 24(2):217–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620701723646
Oecd (2011) Water governance in OECD countries: A multi-level approach. OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264119284-en
Peng Z, Yin J, Zhang L, Zhao J, Liang Y, Wang H (2020) Assessment of the socio-economic impactof a water diversion project fora water-receiving area. Pol J Environ Stud 29(2):1771–1784. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/109026
Roobavannan M, Kandasamy J, Pande S, Vigneswaran S, Sivapalan M (2017) Allocating environmental water and impact on basin unemployment: Role of a diversified economy. Ecol Econ 136:178–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.02.006
Rui Y, Hang X (2023) Water diversion and agricultural production: Evidence from China. J Integr Agric 22(4):1244–1257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jia.2023.03.006
Shen H, Qin M, Li T, Zhang X, Zhao Y (2024) Digital finance and industrial structure upgrading: Evidence from Chinese counties. Int Rev Financ Anal 95: 103442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103442
Sheng J, Qiu W (2023) Inter-basin water transfer policies and water-use technical efficiency: China’s south-north water transfer project. Socio-Econ Plan Sci 85:101432
Shumilova O, Tockner K, Thieme M, Koska A, Zarfl C (2018) Global water transfer megaprojects: A potential solution for the water-food-energy nexus? Front Environ Sci 6:150. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00150
Silva KB, Mattos JB (2020) A spatial approach for the management of groundwater quality in tourist destinations. Tourism Management, 79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104079
Song X, Kong F, Zhan C (2011) Assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Tianjin City of China. Water Resour Manag 25:857–873
Sovacool BK, Geels FW (2021) Megaprojects: Examining their governance and sociotechnical transitions dynamics. Environ Innov Soc Transit 41:89–92
Sternberg T (2016) Water megaprojects in deserts and drylands. Int J Water Resour Dev 32(2):301–320. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2015.1012660
Su Q, Chen X (2021) Efficiency analysis of metacoupling of water transfer based on the parallel data envelopment analysis model: A case of the south–north water transfer project-middle route in China. J Clean Prod 313:127952
Sun K, Hua Y, He W, Yan T, Liu C (2022) Impact assessment on the economy, society, resource, and environment in the water-receiving cities of the middle route project of south-to-north water diversion. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(60):90378–90390
Sun R, Wei J, Zhang S, Pei H (2024 The dynamic changes in phytoplankton and environmental factors within Dongping Lake (China) before and after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Environmental Research, 246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.118138
Tuoku L, Men B (2023) Evaluation of water resource use efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on three-dimensional water ecological footprint. Ecol Indic 154: 110884. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110884
Umapathi S, Chong MN, Sharma AK (2013) Evaluation of plumbed rainwater tanks in households for sustainable water resource management: A real-time monitoring study. J Clean Prod 42:204–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.11.006
Unver IO (1997) South-eastern Anatolia Integrated Development Project (GAP), Turkey: An overview of issues of sustainability. Int J Water Resour Dev 13(2):187–208
Wang Q, Chen J, Zhang X (2023) Regional difference assessment of the south-to-north water diversion project on improving intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the water-receiving areas. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30(20):58920–58932
Wang T, Chi J (2024) Does the South-to-North Water Diversion Project promote the growth of enterprises above designated size in the water-receiving areas?—Evidence from 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China. PLOS ONE 19(2):e0297566
Webber M, Crow-Miller B, Rogers S (2017) The south–north water transfer project: Remaking the geography of China. Reg Stud 51(3):370–382
Wei D (2005) Beijing water resources and the south-to-north water diversion project. Can J Civ Eng 32(1):159–163. https://doi.org/10.1139/L04-113
Wei H, Suxue C, Luyi Q (2022) Comprehensive evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of water resources carrying capacity in the Three Gorges Ecological and Economic Corridor of the Yangtze River. Resour Environ Yangtze River Basin 31(06):1208–1219
Wilson MC, Li X-Y, Ma Y-J, Smith AT, Wu J (2017) A review of the economic, social, and environmental impacts of China’s south–north water transfer project: A sustainability perspective. Sustainability 9(8):1489
Xia J, Zhang L, Liu C, Yu J (2007) Towards better water security in north China. Water Resour Manag 21:233–247
Xu Y, Bi Y, Zhao J, Duan J (2023) Estimating the economic effect of the south-to-north water transfer project on Beijing—An applied computable general equilibrium analysis. Water 15(23):4179
Xu Z, Qiu X, Tian G, Li Y (2024) The influence of the south-to-north water diversion project on agricultural water use in the water-receiving areas. J Nat Resour 39(5):1222. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20240515
Yan H, Chen S, Liu X, Cheng Z, Schmidt B, He W, Cheng F, Xie S (2023) Investigations of fish assemblages using two methods in three terminal reservoirs of the east route of south-to-north water transfer project, China. Animals 13(10):1614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13101614
Yan H, Shaofeng J, Chunxia L (2020) Temporal and spatial matching characteristics of water resources and social and economic development elements: A case study of Zhangjiakou. J Nat Resour 35(06):1392–1401
Yang M, Qin C, Zhu Y, Zhao Y, He G, Wang L (2024) Assessment of multi-regional comprehensive benefits of the south-to-north water diversion project in China. Water 16(3):473. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030473
Yu M, Wang C, Liu Y, Olsson G, Wang C (2018) Sustainability of mega water diversion projects: Experience and lessons from China. Sci Total Environ 619:721–731
Yuan B, Ren S, Chen X (2017) Can environmental regulation promote the coordinated development of economy and environment in China’s manufacturing industry?–a panel data analysis of 28 sub-sectors. J Clean Prod 149:11–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.02.065
Zhang G, Liu W, Duan H (2020) Environmental regulation policies, local government enforcement and pollution-intensive industry transfer in China. Comput Ind Eng 148: 106748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2020.106748
Zhang L, Che L, Wang Z (2024) Where are the critical points of water transfer impact on grain production from the middle route of the south-to-north water diversion project? J Clean Prod, 436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140465
Zhang Q, Xu Z, Shen Z, Li S, Wang S (2009) The Han River watershed management initiative for the south-to-north water transfer project (middle route) of China. Environ Monit Assess 148(1–4):369–377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-008-0167-z
Zhang Q, Zhao X (2024) Can the digital economy facilitate the optimization of industrial structure in resource-based cities? Struct Change Econ Dyn 71:405–416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.010
Zhao Z-Y, Zuo J, Zillante G (2017) Transformation of water resource management: A case study of the south-to-north water diversion project. J Clean Prod 163:136–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.08.066
Zhuang W (2016) Eco-environmental impact of inter-basin water transfer projects: A review. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23(13):12867–12879. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-6854-3
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Jiangsu Provincial Social Science Foundation (25EYC014), the Soft Science Research Program of Jiangsu Province (BR2025015), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (B250207041 and B250207096).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Ying Wang was involved in conceptualization, writing–original draft, data curation, methodology, software, and writing–reviewing. Yiwen Li was involved in conceptualization, supervision, formal analysis, and funding acquisition. Ruixue Hou was involved in conceptualization and supervision. Yiwen Li and Ying Wang contributed equally to this manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics
This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.
Informed consent
This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Li, Y., Wang, Y. & Hou, R. Resource grabbing or win-win? Evidence from the South-to-North Water Diversion project. Humanit Soc Sci Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-06701-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-06701-6
