Fig. 2

Annual a, c and cumulative b, d CO2-e and CO2-e* emissions under the GWP100 a, b and GWP* c, d metrics using historical emissions to 2015 extended with the RCP2.6 scenario. Dashed lines show global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to radiative forcings associated with these emissions (not available separately for land-use CO2). Colors indicate gases following the legend in a, with “Aerosol” also including ozone and other minor constituents. Thin solid lines in d show cumulative CO2-forcing-equivalent emissions closely tracking GMST response