Fig. 1
From: 21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection
Late-20th century correlation maps between California soil moisture and sea surface temperatures. Detrended correlations between (left panels) annual mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and annual mean California (CA) soil moisture; and (right panels) December–January–February (DJF) SSTs and the subsequent June–July–August (JJA) CA soil moisture for (top panels) observations; (middle panels) the model subset that yield a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature versus California precipitation correlation of at least 0.30 (CMIP5 HIGH–r); and (bottom panels) the model subset that yields a corresponding correlation less than 0.20 (CMIP5 LOW–r). Soil moisture observations are from European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESACCI) and HadISST is used for observed SSTs. All correlations are based on the 1950–1999 time period, except the ESACCI observed correlations, which span 1979–2015
