Fig. 2

Late-20th century sea surface temperature anomaly composite maps for the five largest and smallest California soil moisture anomalies. (Top panels) Annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern associated with the five (a–c) largest and (d–f) smallest annual mean CA soil moisture anomalies for (left panels) observations; (middle panels) the model subset that yield a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature versus California precipitation correlation of at least 0.30 (CMIP5 HIGH–r); and (right panels) the model subset that yields a corresponding correlation less than 0.20 (CMIP5 LOW–r). (Bottom panels) December–January–February (DJF) SST anomaly pattern associated with the subsequent June-July-August (JJA) five (g–i) largest and (j–l) smallest CA soil moisture anomalies. SSTs are normalized by the absolute value of CA soil moisture. Soil moisture observations are from European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESACCI) and HadISST is used for observed SSTs. All analyses are based on the 1950–1999 time period, except ESACCI, which span 1979–2015