Fig. 4
From: 21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 RCP8.5 2006–2100 total runoff trends. Ensemble mean total runoff a, b Annual; c, d December–January–February; e, f March–April–May; g, h June–July–August; i, j September–October–November mean trends [mm day−1 century−1] for two CMIP5 model subsets. Left panels show the model subset that yield a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature versus California precipitation correlation of at least 0.30 (CMIP5 HIGH–r); Right panels show the model subset that yield a corresponding correlation less than 0.20 (CMIP5 LOW–r). Symbols represent trend significance at the 90% (diamond), 95% (X) or 99% (+) confidence level, accounting for autocorrelation. Blue/green (brown) colors represent an increase (decrease) in total runoff. Also included are the three regions comprising California, denoted with thick black lines
