Fig. 7
From: 21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 RCP8.5 enhanced California drought risk. Ensemble mean (a) annual and (b) multi-annual (3-year) California drought risk [%] based on precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E), precipitation (P), runoff, shallow (0–0.25 m) soil moisture (SMT) and deep (1.5–3 m) soil moisture (SMB). Colored bars show the ensemble mean enhanced drought risk based on all CMIP5 models (blue; ALL), the model subset that yields a detrended DJF Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature versus California precipitation correlation of at least 0.30 (green; HIGH–r), and the model subset that yields a corresponding correlation less than 0.20 (red; LOW–r). Bars with a thick black outline indicates significance at the 95% confidence level, based on a standard t-test
