Table 1 Simulation result of SEIR model for Case A.

Date	S[t + 1]	E[t + 1]	I[t + 1]	R[t + 1]
31-Jan	7826	31,030	102	0
08-Feb	4781	15,836	206	0
16-Feb	12,807	31,694	510	0
24-Feb	13,125	40,999	765	0
27-Feb	18,014	65,276	612	0
03-Mar	10,079	32,226	514	0
10-Mar	13,885	42,761	703	4
17-Mar	133,124	478,921	1467	20
24-Mar	105,141	318,371	2497	71
31-Mar	112,752	158,692	2795	208
07-Apr	116,052	76,902	4723	774
14-Apr	114,883	59,122	10,513	1105
21-Apr	91,901	46,800	12,814	1182
28-Apr	88,217	39,422	16,818	1565
05-May	84,676	25,541	20,943	2003
12-May	75,347	20,454	27,447	2546
19-May	60,261	15,649	16,938	3552
26-May	48,192	10,894	12,941	4488
02-Jun	38,539	4895	11,591	5358
09-Jun	35,441	4510	10,791	6168
16-Jun	21,256	4313	10,050	6921

The SEIR model is run by considering full lockdown for Case A in which the peak in number of infected people {I[t]} appears to be on 12 May 2020, followed by drop in number of cases which reduces to 10050 by mid of June. Similarly, number of exposed persons {E[t]}, susceptible people {S[t]} also seem to follow a downward trend after a certain time. While number of Removed persons, which include removal by treatment or death, seems to be increasing given the lag in infection and treatment.

Quick links

Search