Fig. 1: Changes in food production and associated links with monsoon precipitation and temperature over India.

a Changes in yield (kg/ha) of wheat, rice, food grain, and cereal in India from 1951–2016, b first difference of precipitation (mm) during the monsoon season (June to September) for 1951–2016, c same as (b) but for the June-to-September air temperature (°C), d–g first difference of food grain, rice, wheat, and cereal yield (kg/ha) during 1951–2016. The first difference was estimated by subtracting the value of the previous year from the current year. Vertical lines indicate precipitation anomalies with a deficit of more than 100 mm and temperature anomalies of more than 0.5 °C during the monsoon season. Such events occurred in 1957, 1972, 1979, 2002, 2009, and 2014, and were associated with significant reductions in food yield. Values in parenthesis indicate the correlation between food yield versus precipitation (P) and temperature (T). Precipitation and temperature anomalies are estimated using all-India averaged precipitation and temperature. Correlations between crop yield and precipitation/temperature were estimated for the entire period of 1951–2016.