Fig. 3: Simulating MJO’s impact on TC Olga (2000).

a Track of TC Olga from observations (black) and model simulations (WAKE (green) and NO-WAKE (orange)). While the “WAKE” case represents the set of simulations where the model is forced by observed SST, the “NO-WAKE” case represents the set of simulations where the model is forced by SSTs from which the influence of MJO is removed. Both “WAKE” and “NO-WAKE” each consist of 8 simulations and the ensemble mean tracks are shown. The color in the background represents the SST change induced by prior MJO, just before Olga’s formation on 15 March 2000. Dates are shown near tracks to indicate the direction of Olga’s movement. b Time evolution of Olga’s 10 m maximum winds (kt) from observations and model simulations. Time evolution of difference between NO-WAKE and WAKE simulations for (c) 10 m maximum wind (kt, green) and minimum sea-level pressure (hPa, red), and (d) along-track pre-storm SST (°C, brown) and enthalpy flux at the air–sea interface under the storm (W m⁻², purple). As in panel (a), ensemble mean values are shown in panels (b–d). The shading in panel (b), and the vertical bars in panels (c, d), indicate the ensemble spread as represented by the s.d.