Fig. 8: The uncertainties for CMIP6 near-surface temperature projections in China.
From: Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C
a Evolution of total uncertainty (black line) and the contribution of individual sources to the total uncertainty. The blue line corresponds to model uncertainty, green line to scenario uncertainty, and red line to internal variability. The long/short dashed vertical lines indicate when mean global warming reaches 1.5 °C/2 °C relative to pre-industrial (1850–1900) under the SSP2–4.5 (light gray) and SSP5–8.5 scenarios (dark gray). b Fraction of total variance accounted for by each type of uncertainty for near-surface mean predictions in China. c Spatial patterns of the uncertainty for internal variability (first column), model uncertainty (second column) and scenario uncertainty (third column), and the total uncertainty (fourth column) in China at GW1.5 and GW2 relative to pre-industrial (1850–1900) under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. This is adapted from Figs. 9 and 10 of You et al. (2021).
