Fig. 7: Variability of SST threshold for deep convection in climate simulations.

a, b Time series (unit: °C) of σconv (a) and σtrop (b) over the Indo-Pacific Ocean simulated by the five best CMIP6 model under the historical run (black line), SSP1-2.6 (green line), SSP2-4.5 (blue line), and SSP5-8.5 (red line), respectively. Shadings denote the uncertainties of model results. Results show that both the σconv and σtrop for convection with different precipitation levels grow steadily at similar linear trends under the same emission scenario (see also Table 1 and Supplementary Table 1), but with trend magnitudes being larger under higher emission scenarios.