Table 1 Long-term trends of σconv (unit: °C/decade) in the past and future projected climate change, based on ERSSTv5, HadISST, and 20 CMIP6 models.
Observation/models | 1979–2020 | 1979–2014 | 2015–2100 (SSP1-2.6) | 2015–2100 (SSP2-4.5) | 2015–2100 (SSP5-8.5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERSSTv5 | 0.09 | 0.07 | / | / | / |
HadISST | 0.07 | 0.04 | / | / | / |
CMIP6 Ensemble | / | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.36 |
CMIP6 Best | / | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.39 |
ACCESS-CM2 | / | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.46 |
CAMS-CSM1-0 | / | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
CAS-ESM2-0 | / | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.40 |
CESM2-WACCM | / | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.46 |
CMCC-CM2-SR5 | / | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
CMCC-ESM2 | / | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
EC-Earth3 | / | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.41 |
EC-Earth3-Veg | / | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.42 |
FGOALS-f3-L | / | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
FGOALS-g3 | / | 0.15 | 0.00* | 0.11 | 0.27 |
GFDL-ESM4 | / | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
INM-CM4-8 | / | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
INM-CM5-0 | / | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
IPSL-CM6A-LR | / | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.51 |
MIROC6 | / | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | / | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.29 |
MPI-ESM1-2-LR | / | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
MRI-ESM2-0 | / | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.35 |
NESM3 | / | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.39 |
TaiESM1 | / | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
