Table 2 Long-term trends of DCFPconv (unit: 105 km2/decade) in the past and future projected climate change, based on ERSSTv5, HadISST, and 20 CMIP6 model simulations.

From: Differential expansion speeds of Indo-Pacific warm pool and deep convection favoring pool under greenhouse warming

Observation/models

1979–2020

1979–2014

2015–2100 (SSP1-2.6)

2015–2100 (SSP2-4.5)

2015–2100 (SSP5-8.5)

ERSSTv5

9.50

11.16

/

/

/

HadISST

10.63

13.55

/

/

/

CMIP6 Ensemble

/

1.26*

0.25*

1.08

2.52

CMIP6 Best

/

4.02

0.46*

1.45

3.24

ACCESS-CM2

/

4.23

1.21*

2.29

4.18

CAMS-CSM1-0

/

2.19*

0.77*

1.06*

3.01

CAS-ESM2-0

/

3.13*

0.68*

0.98*

3.60

CESM2-WACCM

/

4.24*

−0.36*

−0.40*

2.27*

CMCC-CM2-SR5

/

5.74

1.73

2.41

3.57

CMCC-ESM2

/

2.01*

0.52*

0.92*

1.77*

EC-Earth3

/

0.86*

−0.23*

2.17

4.32

EC-Earth3-Veg

/

−0.20*

0.15*

2.19

3.55

FGOALS-f3-L

/

2.02*

−0.94*

−0.12*

3.05*

FGOALS-g3

/

−1.85*

−0.21*

−0.62*

−0.56*

GFDL-ESM4

/

0.52*

0.21*

0.88*

1.68

INM-CM4-8

/

1.71*

0.17*

0.99*

2.46

INM-CM5-0

/

2.74*

−0.95*

2.00

2.61

IPSL-CM6A-LR

/

−0.86*

0.51*

1.55*

3.30

MIROC6

/

−3.34*

0.33*

−0.16*

−0.91*

MPI-ESM1-2-HR

/

1.39*

1.40

0.94*

1.95

MPI-ESM1-2-LR

/

1.54*

−0.27*

1.13*

2.26

MRI-ESM2-0

/

2.13*

0.07*

1.00*

3.50

NESM3

/

0.90*

1.08*

1.07*

2.11

TaiESM1

/

−0.41*

−0.90*

1.25*

2.79

  1. Bold texts denote the five models that could better capture the historical DCFPconv area trend. All trends are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level, except those marked with asterisks.
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