Fig. 3: Relationships between precipitation and the AMV.

a–i Precipitation difference between SST+ and SST- 10-year periods for the AMV, AMV-Trop and AMV-ExTrop regions (indicated by the black boxes). These are shown for the SST-restoring experiments for the IPSL and UM models; for the free-running coupled PiControl simulations the SST+ and SST- decades are decades in which the SST in the region is above/below one standard deviation from the mean. Hatching indicates where the differences are significant at the 95% level, based on a Monte Carlo resampling performed 10000 times (see Methods). j Gaussian distributions of the decadal tropical North Atlantic precipitation anomalies in the different ensembles (averaged over the regions shown by the magenta boxes in panels (a–i)). k Regression of decadal precipitation anomalies onto decadal SST anomalies for the subtropical North Atlantic region. The regressions were calculated for all unique 140-year periods in the historical and piControl simulations and the box, centre-line and whiskers show the 5th-25th-50th-75th-95th percentiles of these distributions. For the SST-restoring experiments 10,000 random 140-year periods (i.e. 14 decades) were sampled and constructed from the ensemble members to calculate the regression; the box and whiskers show the distribution across these random samples for each experiment.