Fig. 5: Decadal variability and long-term trends in LPS precipitation.
Time series (left) and linear trends (right) of precipitation averaged within 3∘of the vortex center for (a) monsoon lows and (b) monsoon depressions. Thick red and blue lines represent the multi-model means of the models having, respectively, extended-future projections to 2100 (the MRI-H and MRI-S models, MRI_mean) and near-future projections to 2050 (the full ensemble, MMM). Shading shows the spread across the models, time series are nine-year running means, the thin black line shows ERA5 values, and error bars represent a 90% confidence interval. c Projected changes in precipitation and specific humidity at 850 hPa, both averaged within 3∘ of the vortex center, as well as the projected change in the radial difference in MSLP between the surroundings and the storm’s MSLP minimum. The horizontal dashed line marks the 7%K−1 rate of change. d Projected change in seasonal mean surface air temperature over the South Asian region (10–25∘N, 70–90∘E). Bars with diagonal hatching represent changes between the historical (1980–2009) and extended-future periods (2070–2099), while bars without hatching represent changes between the historical and near future (2020–2049) periods.
