Fig. 1: Change in the frequencies of IWP in the global warming GSRM experiment and with interannual temperature variations in the CloudSat observations.
a Simulations in present-day climate (control) and in the warmer future climate (global warming). The ranges of IWP corresponding to active convection and convective anvils are indicated in the panel. The vertical red line with the cross underneath marks the mean IWP integrated over the control distribution. The plotted range of IWP frequencies, i.e. above 8 × 10−2 kg m−2, represents about 14 % of the tropical area. b Interannual anomalies of tropical-mean surface temperature TS in the ERA5 reanalysis. c Interannual anomalies of IWP frequency from July 2006 to December 2010 in CloudSat observations (2B-CWC-RO). d Fractional change of IWP frequency with TS in the simulation and with interannual temperature variations in CloudSat observations. The red line is for observations from 2006 to 2010 (2B-CWC-RO) and the yellow line is for observations from 2006 to 2017 (DARDAR). See text and Supplementary Fig. 6 for discussion of the differences between 2B-CWC-RO and DARDAR. The error bars indicate the standard errors of regression of the IWP interannual frequency anomalies on the TS interannual anomalies (see Methods; the confidence interval on the correlations and associated p-values are shown in Supplementary Fig. 4).
