Fig. 4: Estimated increase in temperature and likelihood of maximum Tx under dry and wet preconditions.
From: Record-shattering 2023 Spring heatwave in western Mediterranean amplified by long-term drought
a maximum Tx and b probability under dry SM compared to wet SM preconditions, estimated by means of a GEV fit. Horizontal orange lines represent the GEV prediction for the sequence of 21- to 30-day time windows centred in the peak of the event, whereas brown lines show the same but for the 31- to 40-day time windows, respectively. There is one horizontal line for all days comprising the sequence from 21 to 40 (see Analogues experiment in Data and Methods section for further details). Dark red points indicate the mean value of the entire distribution (middle), whereas left and right points refer to the two-time windows above mentioned. Boxes show the interquartile ranges and whiskers span the 1st–99th percentiles.
