Fig. 3: Timeseries of key properties of Storm Ciarán in different forecasts and analyses starting from 00 UTC 31 October 2023. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 3: Timeseries of key properties of Storm Ciarán in different forecasts and analyses starting from 00 UTC 31 October 2023.

From: Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán

Fig. 3

a, c minimum MSLP and b, d maximum 10-m wind speed. a, b IFS analysis, IFS HRES forecast and forecasts from the four ML models. a, d ERA5, forecasts made from the ERA5 system and forecasts from control members of the ensemble forecasts from IFS (IFS ens_cntl), the Met Office (UKMO ens_cntl), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA ens_cntl) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP ens_cntl). Note that the ECMWF HRES and IFS control members use the same model and resolution but are not bit-identical for technical computational reasons.

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