Fig. 8: The predictable component of sea level in the SPEAR initialized decadal hindcasts/forecasts. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 8: The predictable component of sea level in the SPEAR initialized decadal hindcasts/forecasts.

From: Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

Fig. 8

a The predictable component of sea level (mm) over the North Atlantic Ocean derived from the average predictability time (APT) method. b The ensemble mean (magenta line) and spread (pink shading) timeseries as a function of lead times for the decadal hindcasts initialized on 1 January every five years from 1961 to 2021. The red (blue) line is the timeseries for projecting the SPEAR reanalysis (satellite observation) onto the APT component. c Anomaly correlation between the APT timeseries in hindcasts and projected satellite observation timeseries as a function of lead times (yellow solid line). The error bars around the line denote the ensemble spread at each lead time. The dashed black line denotes the 90% confidence level using a Monte Carlo method.

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