Fig. 9: 5-year predictions of detrended sea level at different initialization years.

a The detrended annual mean sea level time series at U.S. Southeast tide gauge stations (thick gray lines) and ensemble mean predicted 5-year sea level trajectories initialized between 1961 and 2023 (solid color lines). The dashed red lines are the ensemble spread for the sea level prediction initialized in 2023 estimated by the one standard deviation of all members. Unit is mm.