Fig. 2: Hysteresis in regional and subseasonal ISM precipitation.

a–c (above) Seasonal cycle of daily (June 1st to October 31st) precipitation climatology in a Western Ghats (lands within 70–76.875°E, 8.5–23.5°N), b south-central-east India (lands within 76.875–87.5°E, 13–26°N), and c Tamil Nadu (lands within 76.875–80°E, 8.5–13°N) during 50-year periods: (i) from years 2035 to 2084 (blue; equivalent global warming levels appeared during CO₂ ramp-up phase with years 2231–2280) and (ii) from years 2231 to 2280 (red; displaying the largest hysteresis (negative overshoot) in ISM precipitation during CO₂ ramp-down phase) from CESM1 28 ensemble simulation averages and ranges of plus-to-minus inter-ensemble standard deviations (shadings). (below) Percent anomalies of RD-RU precipitation, relative to the precipitation amount in CO₂ ramp-up period (years 2035–2084), calculated as \(\frac{{RD}-{RU\,precipitation}}{{Precipitation\,during}\,{{CO}}_{2}\,{ramp}-{up\,period}}\times 100 \%\). Black dots indicate the differences are statistically significant at 5% level based on a two-sided Student’s t-test. Probabilistic differences of daily (from June 1st to October 31st) precipitation occurrence over d Western Ghats, e south-central-east India, and f Tamil Nadu in RD-RU with respect to precipitation intensities (y-axis; log-scale). Black dots indicate the differences are statistically significant at 5% level based on a two-sided Student’s t-test.