Fig. 3: Hysteresis in large-scale thermodynamic conditions.

a Zonal mean (40–100°E averages) vertical profile of air temperature responses in RD-RU during June to October averages from CESM1 28 ensemble simulation averages. Black stippling indicates regions with significant temperature changes in RD-RU at the 5% level based on a two-sided Student’s t-test. b Seasonal cycle (from January 1st to December 31st) of daily middle to upper troposphere (600 to 200 hPa averages) meridional temperature gradient around India (40–100°E, northern (5–35°N) minus southern (15°S to 5°N) regions, illustrated as gray boxes in (a), respectively) during 50-year periods: (i) from years 2035 to 2084 (blue; equivalent global warming levels appeared during CO2 ramp-up phase with years 2231–2280) and (ii) from years 2231 to 2280 (red; displaying the largest hysteresis (negative overshoot) in ISM precipitation during CO2 ramp-down phase) from CESM1 28 ensemble simulation averages and ranges of plus-to-minus inter-ensemble standard deviations (shadings).