Fig. 10: The temporal evolution of daily maximum temperature over the MLYR for six non-HW events.

a-f The CNOP-P experiment for a NHW1, b NHW2, c NHW3, d NHW4, e NHW5 and f NHW6. The green line denotes the control forecast, the blue line denotes the observation, the pink line denotes the ensemble mean of the CNOP-P forecasts, and the shadow denotes the ensemble members. The error bars indicate the 95% confidence intervals determined via the bootstrap method. g–l are similar to (a–f) but for the RP experiment.