Fig. 2: Spatial distributions and probabilistic analysis of six HW events.

Spatial distributions of Tm for a observations and b control forecast during the heat wave periods and probability distributions of the HWs based on the ensembles generated in the c RP and d CNOP-P experiments for HW1. e–h, i–l, m–p, q–t, and u–x are similar to (a–d) but for HW2, HW3, HW4, HW5, and HW6, respectively. The black dashed box denotes the MLYR.