Fig. 9: The differences between daily maximum temperature and 35 °C high-temperature threshold.

a observations, b control forecast, and ensemble means based on the ensembles generated via the c RP and d CNOP-P methods for NHW1 during the heat wave period. The black dashed box denotes the MLYR. e–h, i–l, m–p, q–t, and u–x are similar to a–d but for NHW2, NHW3, NHW4, NHW5 and NHW6, respectively.