Fig. 1: Simulated changes in SST and precipitation anomalies during the EP and CP El Niño mature winter under global warming.
a Multi-model ensemble mean of precipitation anomalies (upper panel, units: mm day−1) and zonal distribution of meridionally averaged precipitation and SST anomalies (lower panel, units: °C) over 4°S-4°N (lower panel, thick dark green and red lines, respectively) during EP El Niño for the historical runs. The light shading indicates the spread corresponding to the 25th to 75th percentiles. The thick light green lines denote the area where precipitation anomalies are greater than 1.0 mm day−1. The green and red triangle denotes the longitude of the maximum positive precipitation and SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific (4°S-4°N), respectively. Black bars along the longitudinal axis are the ranges of one standard deviation among models. b As in (a), but for the SSP585 runs. c Differences between (a) and (b). The thick light green line in c denotes the area where the change in precipitation anomalies is greater than 0.3 mm day−1. d–f As in (a–c), but for CP El Niño. Two-tailed Student’s t-test is conducted for the change in precipitation anomalies between SSP585 and historical runs. Values reaching 95% confidence level are dotted in white. g, h Histograms (bars) and fitted distribution of the probability distribution of the position of the maximum positive precipitation anomalies during EP and CP El Niño, respectively.
