Fig. 2: Simulated changes in El Niño-driven precipitation anomalies under global warming and relationships with changes in the meridional distributions of underlying SST anomalies.

a Zonal distribution of multi-model ensemble mean of changes in precipitation anomalies (units: mm day−1, green line) and convergence of the meridional gradient of SST anomalies (\(-\frac{{\partial }^{2}}{\partial {y}^{2}}(\Delta SST^{\prime} )\), units: 10−11 °C m−2, red line) meridionally averaged over 4°S-4°N for EP El Niño. The light red shading indicates the spread of \(-\frac{{\partial }^{2}}{\partial {y}^{2}}(\Delta SST^{\prime} )\) corresponding to the 25th to 75th percentiles. b As in (a), but for CP El Niño. c Scatter diagram for \(-\frac{{\partial }^{2}}{\partial {y}^{2}}(\Delta SST^{\prime} )\) (abscissa axis) vs. changes in precipitation anomalies (ordinate axis) averaged over 4°S-4°N, 175°W-135°W for EP El Niño. The correlation coefficient is shown in the upper right corner. d As in (c), but averaged over 4°S-4°N, 165°E-155°W for CP El Niño.