Fig. 4: Land surface temperature (units: ℃) and precipitation anomalies (units: mm day−1) during the EP and CP El Niño mature winter simulated by the historical and SSP585 runs, respectively.

a Multi-model ensemble mean of surface temperature anomalies (units: ℃) during EP El Niño for the historical runs. Shadings are shown only when 80% of models agree on the sign of the multi-model ensemble mean. b As in (a), but for the SSP585 runs. c, d As in (a, b), but for CP El Niño. e–h As in (a–d), but for precipitation anomalies.