Fig. 2: Confident forecasts and outcomes.
From: Understanding spring forecast El Niño false alarms in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
All of the spring forecasts in for each model from the hindcast period placed into the confident success, false alarms categories. Confident forecasts are where >75% of the ensemble members predict an El Niño event. Confident successes are where these confident forecasts are successful and false alarms are where the confident forecasts do not verify.
